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Analysts, current and former Bosnian officials believe that the CIA director’s visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia is a response to the challenges posed by the Kremlin’s influence in the region and the secessionist aspirations of pro-Russian politicians in Republika Srpska.
“I am sure that this is a serious problem, as it is rare for the CIA director to carry out such missions and announce them publicly. I think one of the reasons is the increase in Serbian and Russian malign influence in the Balkans,” said Sërgja Pavllović, a historian at the Wells Institute at the University of Alberta in Canada and a researcher at Radio Free Europe.
An unnamed U.S. government official told Radio Free Europe that William Burns and his colleagues held discussions on August 20 with the head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Intelligence and Security Service, the president and the foreign minister, focusing on, among other things, the escalation of tensions caused by Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik.
On the other hand, due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Serbia resisted Western pressure to impose sanctions on Russia.
Belgrade has also refused to extradite the suspect who organised the Banjska attack in Kosovo last September, while talks on normalising relations with Pristina have stalled.
Dodik is an open supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he has met several times since Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
Bosnia and Herzegovina “joined” Western sanctions, but they were not implemented due to opposition from Republika Srpska political representatives in the Bosnian Council of State Ministers, led by the Independent Social Democratic Party (SNSD) led by Dodik.
Dodik and other Republika Srpska leaders are under U.S. sanctions for violating the Dayton agreement that ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as for corruption.
Companies owned by Dodik or linked to him were also sanctioned.
What message did the CIA director’s visit convey?
Margarita Asenova, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, told Radio Free Europe that Serbia has “been creating problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina for a long time” and has become “more visible and more dangerous.”
“Burns’ visit sends a very good message to Serbia that the United States will not tolerate its behavior,” Asenova said.
According to her, the Kremlin will benefit from the Balkan issues because they will distract American and European attention from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Kadri Kastrati, a former commander of the Kosovo Security Force, told Radio Free Europe that “Russia is waging a hybrid war in the Western Balkans.”
“The greatest risk of conflict is in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska and northern Kosovo. The visit of senior officials from the region shows that they have enough information about Russian efforts through their satellite Serbia to indicate that this part of Europe is in danger of a possible conflict… It is certain that they are here to give their advice,” Kastrati said.
Hybrid warfare is a mode of warfare or conflict that involves activities primarily related to information and media warfare. If this type of warfare does not achieve the desired effect, then the use of force may occur.
Nekshad Koraylic, a professor at the Faculty of Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo, told Radio Free Europe that the United States is concerned about preventing an escalation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, “especially ideas coming from the Republika Srpska entity.”
“There can be nothing negative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It may have a negative impact on some people, especially those who are blacklisted,” Korajllič said.
He recalled that the United States sanctions had a negative impact on financial flows to Republika Srpska.
The United States sanctioned not only the leaders of the Republika Srpska entity, but also the former Prime Minister of another entity, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the then former State Prosecutor of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the former Director of the Intelligence and Security Service, among others.
The United States also sanctioned Aleksandar Vulin, the former head of Serbia’s intelligence agency and current minister in the Serbian government.
What to expect in the future?
Amin Krzalic, professor at the Faculty of Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo, believes that US policy from Dayton to the present will continue in the future “in the context of protecting US interests.”
“This interest is the preservation of the sovereign and complete state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and all its characteristics. The United States will develop mechanisms and opportunities for all those who threaten its interests in this area, especially in the context of preserving the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Kırzhalliç said.
About ten days after Acting Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Anna Morris visited Sarajevo on March 7, banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina have begun closing accounts of individuals and companies on the “blacklist” to avoid sanctions.
Elija Cvitanovic, national representative of the Croatian Democratic Union in 1990 and member of the Supervisory Board of the Intelligence and Security Service of Bosnia and Herzegovina, told Radio Free Europe that the CIA director’s visit to Bosnia and Serbia also showed that “those who are responsible for assessing the security situation around the world are very interested in Bosnia and Herzegovina” and “they will not give up.”
“Those who give themselves the right to cross the border, while attacking the constitution, make them uncomfortable with this visit because – I am 100 percent sure – it sends a message about the US commitment to Bosnia and Herzegovina,” said Kvitanovic of Radio Free Europe.
Semsudin Mehmedovic, a former deputy of the opposition Democratic Action Party and current leader of the Naplied Party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, said that “the political disintegration process involving Bosnia and Herzegovina is related to Russian influence in the Balkans.”
“This visit by the CIA director can be seen in this context,” he said.
He added that “the separatist and destructive policies of some officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is a political satellite of Belgrade, are linked to Mr. Burns’ visit to Sarajevo and Belgrade”.
“We will see the consequences of this visit in the next period,” Mekhmedovich said.
What was discussed at the meeting?
Former CIA Director John Brennan visits Sarajevo in 2016.
The then-President of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mladen Ivanic of Republika Srpska, said he did not think anything practical would happen after CIA Director William Burns’ visit to Bosnia and Serbia on August 20-21.
“On the contrary, it shows that they want to complete the ideas set out in the Dayton Peace Agreement and that they want Bosnia and Herzegovina to remain relatively stable,” Ivanic said.
“They do not support secessionism, but they also do not support the desire for excessive centralization of power in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because they know very well that this is unrealistic and impossible in the conditions in which we live, due to the collective rights of the people of both countries,” he added.
He said that no matter who will become the president of the United States, this will not change.
Ivanic also believes that the CIA director’s visit to Serbia “has nothing to do with Bosnia” and “has more to do with its relationship with Kosovo.”
Former Bosnia Security Minister Dragan Mektic met with former CIA Director Brennan and said such visits would be good for Bosnia.
According to him, in such meetings, relations between the state and intelligence agencies are analyzed and priorities are determined.
“Sometimes specific issues are discussed, mainly in the fight against international terrorism, where Bosnia and Herzegovina’s position in the global anti-terrorist alliance is very important,” Mektic said.
A day after Burns visited Bosnia, Dodik said that “Republika Srpska has never opposed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina” and “it has never been our policy to split the country.”
In March this year, the US intelligence community mentioned Dodik’s name in its annual global threat report.
Burns, a former diplomat and former ambassador to Russia, is one of the central figures in U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration and a member of his Cabinet.
News from Banja Luka and Belgrade
The leadership of the Republika Srpska has regularly sent messages calling for separation from Bosnia and Herzegovina and integration with Serbia, while Serbian political leaders have sent messages in support of the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The leaders of the two countries agreed on the “Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People” at the All-Serbian Parliament on June 8, in the presence of the leaders of the Serbian Orthodox Church, and the two parliaments approved the bill in July.
Declarations by some countries insisted on respecting the Dayton Agreement and did not talk about the secession of the country.
However, the Republika Srpska government set up a working group to draft an agreement on the “peaceful secession” of Republika Srpska from the rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Republika Srpska authorities have passed a series of laws aimed at “returning jurisdiction” of the Bosnian state to the Republika Srpska entity, but these laws have been repealed by either the Bosnian Constitutional Court or high-level representatives of the international community in this country.
At the same time, the number of members of the European Union Force in Bosnia (EUFOR) has increased./relatively
Posts CIA Director visits Bosnia and Serbia, ‘responding to Kremlin and separatist aspirations’ First appeared in Ku Klux Klan.
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