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Those who expected rockets to rain down on Tel Aviv after the elimination of Hamas leaders in Tehran and Hezbollah commanders in Beirut were wrong. The murders of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shouk “hurt Iran’s pride,” as the general secretary of the Lebanese Shia militia said, but the impression is that the “Zionist entity” is not a priority for Iran, nor is Iran a priority for the Jewish state.
Tehran reiterated that it has the right to retaliate, perhaps even this week, but from a strategic point of view, it is enough for Iran to become a regional leader in defending the “Palestinian cause.” The most important goal of the ultra-conservative Israeli government is that the Palestinians never get a state. A war between them would hurt both Iran and Israel. Thus, the Gaza conflict creates a new balance of power: it saves Israel from recognizing a Palestinian state and it saves Iran from further strengthening the pro-American alliance of Arabs who have diplomatic relations with Israel.
Does this explain the increasingly frequent claims that Benjamin Netanyahu ignored warnings from Israel’s Shin Bet military and civilian wing that Islamist Hamas was up to no good before October 7, 2023? Does it sound realistic that an operation involving a large number of Hamas members was planned for months and not leaked to Israel? Does the transfer of an elite force from the Gaza border to the West Bank days before the massacre of Jewish civilians fit into such a framework?
Is the Israeli Prime Minister seeking an excuse to launch a massive assault on the Gaza Strip, just as he did during the 1982 invasion of Lebanon? Is his goal not just to “totally destroy” Hamas, but to carry out a massive ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank in order to realize the dream of a biblical Israel from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea?
The brutal repression of Palestinian civilians, the refusal to cease fire and the insistence that Palestinians can forget about their own state all serve Netanyahu’s strategic goals. That is why it is not at all certain whether the call for ceasefire negotiations signed in a joint statement on August 15 by the mediators, the US president, the Egyptian president and the Emir of Qatar will have any effect.
The Pentagon has ordered a massive deployment of naval and air forces to the region, the largest since the Gaza war began, but it is uncertain whether another Middle East mission by Secretary of State Antony Blinken will succeed in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages.
Iran has its own calculations. While waging a war of nerves, Tehran is buying time so as not to provoke a war it does not want by acting hastily. The IRGC did gather armed groups from Gaza, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria in a “ring of fire” and threatened to “liberate Jerusalem,” but all this was more to determine Iran’s ambitions for greater control of the region than its desire for a full-scale war with Israel.
Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map of the Middle East since the 1979 revolution. All presidents have repeated their claims about the annihilation of the “Zionist entity,” but all are clear that this would require destroying Israel as a nuclear state and “eliminating” the United States. This is impossible.
The same is true now. Iran has declared that it will avenge the murders in Tehran and Beirut “at the right place at the right time,” but despite its inflammatory rhetoric, it is careful not to be dragged into a wider conflict, which certainly does not sit well with Israel. Tehran is bound to retaliate, but it is in no rush to plan a final strike on Israel, which would be carefully calibrated, just as it did in April when Iran first aimed missiles and drones directly at Israel in response to the liquidation of an Islamic Guard commander in Damascus.
Iran left its revenge and victims to Hezbollah, which received instructions from Tehran to penetrate deep into Israeli territory and target not only military but also civilian targets.
There are two options before Tehran: one is to participate in the war that Israel wants, but as long as Israel has the support of the United States, Iran cannot win this war; or, according to the strategy of “strategic patience”, guide Iran to mediate with Israel. A diplomatic solution with Washington, which also does not want a regional war. This will ensure uninterrupted long-term influence in the region. Iran’s threats are more of a tool of negotiation strategy than a plan for military implementation.
Israel is expected to continue its policy of avoiding preemptive strikes against Iran or Hezbollah, but is preparing for a defense, which will require help from the West. In April, the Iron Dome proved insufficient to protect against hundreds of rockets, and without the help of the Americans and some Arabs, the casualties would have been enormous.
Israel announced a fierce counterattack as it waited nervously to see if this attack would be more severe than the one four months ago. For the first time since the founding of the state, underground shelters were opened for government members and generals. Hospitals were on full alert. The streets of Tel Aviv were not deserted, but they were empty.
Netanyahu is preparing for a major war. He still hopes for a chance to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. The Gaza war is buying time for his right-wing coalition. At a time when a ceasefire in Gaza seemed “within reach,” the prime minister decided to provocatively liquidate the leadership of Hamas, a move that is widening the conflict to extend his own political life. “Netanyahu has been given the green light to take responsibility for the ongoing escalation, and he is once again deliberately leading Israel toward disaster,” Haaretz wrote in an editorial.
As for Hezbollah, they continue to engage Israel on Lebanon’s southern border, but both sides are waiting to see what the next phase will be – a massive strike on northern and central Israel. Following instructions from Tehran, Shiite militia officials are talking about attacks on the Tel Aviv area and “important power centers that decided to kill (Haniyeh)” – possibly the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.
While waiting for the end or the conspiracy, Hezbollah follows Israel’s painful anticipation with undisguised joy. Living in fear is part of their revenge. “We are patient,” said Hassan Nasrallah, the general secretary of the Shiite militias. From his speech we can conclude that they also do not want a repeat of the summer of 2006, when they had a direct and devastating conflict with Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is not known for his patience. Much will depend on how long he can endure this tense game.
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