Would Harris win Michigan without the Arab American vote? – International Journalism

Kamala Harris’ first conflict with supporters of the Palestinian people since becoming the Democratic candidate was at an election rally in Michigan on August 7. As she was speaking to thousands of people who supported her, some of them disrupted the atmosphere of the gathering, shouting, “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide! We will not vote for genocide!” Harris did acknowledge that they had a right to speak, but as they continued to chant, she lost her patience and said, “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, just say it. Otherwise, I’m talking.”

The confrontational atmosphere during the primary was not surprising. In Michigan, a Democratic voice movement was born to encourage “no commitment” voting in protest of Joe Biden’s handling of the Gaza war. In the Michigan Democratic primary, about 13% of male and female voters did so. Protest voting was more pronounced in the city of Dearborn, where the majority of the population is of Arab descent.

Yet Harris is currently doing better in Michigan. A New York Times poll of female and likely voters, conducted in partnership with Siena College, shows her ahead by four points. There is evidence that she is not as widely blamed as Biden for the bloodshed in Gaza.

Overall, protest voting among Michigan women and Arab voters dates back to before Gaza, and their political preferences parallel America’s wars. More specifically, George W. Bush won the majority of Arab votes in the state in 2000, but Arab Americans began to lean toward the Democratic Party after the events of September 11, 2001, and the invasion of Iraq. Over the next five presidential elections, the Democratic Party’s strength among these voters did not appear to waver until the 2020 election.

But in the 2022 midterm elections, votes swung back toward the Republicans long before the Gaza war. The culture wars flared in Dearborn when the city’s school library stocked books targeting young people with homosexual traits, drawing attention and turning school board meetings hostile.

He won the election that enshrined abortion rights in the Michigan Constitution by a 13-point majority statewide. But he lost badly in some districts in Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have large Yemeni populations.

Then there is the Gaza war. “The fire is boiling, and someone is pouring gasoline on it,” said Hammoud, a Michigan resident. “Everything is viewed through the lens of Gaza at this stage.” Since Harris became the nominee, however, things have gotten much better.

Last June, about 65% of Democrats who said they sympathized with the Palestinian people in their conflict with Israel expressed a favorable impression of Harris. In the first poll conducted after Biden dropped out, her favorable rating among that group rose 14 points. She also boosted support among Democrats most sympathetic to Israel, with their approval rating for Harris rising to 89% from 73%.

The Economist

Translated by: Yasmin Abdul Latif