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Is he nervous that he won’t go on, or is he really going to strike? We are talking about the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. In recent days, there has been speculation that his army could invade Ukrainian territory. However, what is going on in the mind of the self-proclaimed president, I am afraid only he knows.
photo: SITA/AP, Alexander Kazakov
Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. (The Belarusian leader is pictured with his Kremlin counterpart on July 26, when they met in the Republic of Karelia, in the north of the Russian Federation.)
A few days ago, Lukashenko congratulated the Ukrainian people on the national holiday of Independence Day. He congratulated the nation, instead of referring to the politicians in power, as is customary. “We are united not only by a common destiny and family ties, but also by the desire to be friends and live in harmony with our neighbors,” he noted in his greetings published by the press service. Officially went to the Ukrainian border for exercises.
Kiev did not pass troop movements silently, and its intelligence found that the Belarusians moved a lot of heavy military equipment to the Khomel region in the southeast of the country: tanks, artillery, rocket launchers, etc. “We call on Belarusian officials not to make tragic mistakes for their country under the pressure of Moscow and its armed forces, to stop hostilities and withdraw troops from the Ukrainian state border to a distance beyond the range of Belarus’ available fire systems,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on the social network Telegram.
Lukashenko’s expression basically means that he has not angered his neighbors in any way. On the contrary, he even warned that he faces blackmail from Western powers. He talks about this without evidence, so logically, he is making it up. “Spit on Russia, stay away from Russia. You will fight Russia together with Ukraine,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying by the BELTA news agency. He also mentioned the alleged plan: He claimed that it would be an invasion that would lead to the invasion of NATO forces into the Russian city of Smolensk, located near Belarus. Of course, these are all delusions, because the members of the North Atlantic Alliance would never dream of such a thing, and the world could find itself on the brink of a nuclear war.
The mobilization of Belarusian troops is probably mainly related to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region: the Russians would obviously be happy if Kiev deployed part of its forces in the border area with Ukraine, thereby weakening the strength of the Ukrainian army in front of them. Belarus is worried about a possible attack. “The current buildup of Belarusian troops may be aimed at disengaging Ukrainian forces and extending them to the border,” wrote the American Institute for the Study of War. Analysts of the institute believe that Lukashenko is unlikely to attack Ukraine because it would be a drag on Ukraine. The participation of Belarusians in the war may bring him large-scale riots among citizens, which is counterproductive.
Kiev strongly objected to Lukashenko’s consideration of violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity. He instructed Minsk not only to withdraw its troops to a reasonable distance, but also warned that if Belarusian soldiers launched an attack, they would become legitimate targets of retaliation. However, Ukrainian officials said that the current situation on the border is not worrying, especially considering that according to their findings, only more than a thousand Belarusian soldiers have been transferred there.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, also believes that Lukashenko is bluffing: “Belarus intends to transfer Iskanders and Polonezes to the border area with the aim of diverting the attention of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command from the offensive,” the news server quoted him as saying. (Iskanders are short-range ballistic missiles, Polonezs are missile systems.) In Kiev, however, they remain vigilant: “It cannot be ruled out that Moscow will push Minsk to join the war,” warned Andryj Demčenko, a representative of the Ukrainian State Border Guard.
Rainer Sachs, the former head of Estonian intelligence, wrote in his blog that in theory it is not possible to rule out provocative actions by Lukashenko, which would lead to the targeting of Ukrainian air defense systems against targets in Belarus (which could become a pretext for provoking a fight). However, he stressed that these are just speculations. He said that the Belarusian leader is aware that if he is dragged into a Russian war against Ukraine, he could face severe retaliation: “Real military intervention would mean huge internal political risks, which could lead to the collapse of the political system or the situation in Ukraine.” The country’s complete loss of independence and transition to Russian control. “Control”.
The fact remains that Lukashenko has been enslaved by the Kremlin for many years and therefore often has to do what Putin wants. Belarus’s dependence on Russia is especially linked to dependence on cheap oil and gas supplies. For example: Belarusian motorists pay three times less for fuel than Slovak drivers.
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