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While many Latin American countries have eagerly embraced China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with 22 countries joining it so far, Brazil has not joined Mexico, Colombia and the Bahamas. Despite Beijing’s ongoing efforts to win Brazil’s support, Brasilia is carefully weighing its options, taking into account both political and economic trade-offs.
Economically, China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009, and trade between the two countries has grown steadily.
Brazil and China are close allies with strong political ties. Brazil became the first country to establish a strategic partnership with China during President Jiang Zemin’s visit to China in 1993. Jiang returned in 2001 and strengthened the partnership. This close relationship continued during the visits of former President Hu Jintao in 2004 and 2010, and President Xi Jinping in 2014 and 2019.
Brazilian presidents reciprocated Chinese diplomatic engagement with a series of important visits, beginning with Figueiredo in 1984, followed by Sarney in 1988 and Cardoso in 1995, each strengthening the growing partnership.
President Lula further strengthened the relationship through visits in 2004 and 2009, establishing the Brazil-China High-Level Committee for Coordination and Cooperation (COSBAN) during his first visit. Rousseff continued the momentum with visits in 2011 and 2014. More recently, Bolsonaro in 2019 and Lula in April 2023 have continued the tradition, ensuring a lasting strategic alliance between Brazil and China.
It was during his most recent visit to Beijing in 2023 that Brazilian President Lula further solidified these ties, marking an important diplomatic engagement that culminated in the signing of multiple bilateral agreements, including a series of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) covering areas such as facilitation of trade and research and innovation cooperation. At the time, Xi Jinping sought another agreement, Brazil’s support for the Belt and Road Initiative, but was unable to reach it.
This comes a few months before BRICS 2023 supports Brazil’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, a seat that Lula sought from Beijing during his first term, but China’s response was not satisfactory. In fact, the Lula government expressed its dissatisfaction by not implementing trade and foreign direct investment as promised.
Brazil is acutely aware that support for the Belt and Road Initiative would mean huge benefits to China on the world stage, and will seek to use any negotiations to secure expanded and predictable market access for agricultural products. Today, oil, iron ore and soybeans account for approximately 75% of the value of exports to China, providing ample opportunity for Brazil to diversify its trade.
A key pillar of this market diversification revolves around animal proteins (beef, poultry and pork), high value-added products for which Brazil is highly competitive and competes with countries such as the EU and the US.
Brazil’s reluctance to join the Belt and Road Initiative without major concessions from China may finally pay off. The strategy is bold and ambitious, but it could deliver the win-win situation that China often touts. For Lula, such a deal would be a political victory as he faces reelection in October 2026. For Xi, who faces geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions with the European Union and the United States, securing Brazil’s support would deliver the huge boost the Belt and Road Initiative needs and would strengthen China’s leadership role in the Global South,
Recent developments suggest that Brazil may be on the verge of reconsidering its position. Preparations are underway for Xi Jinping’s official visit to Brazil during the November G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro, and the timing could be just right.
By Alvaro Mendez and Chris Alden (excerpt)
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