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While NATO leaders are expected this week to reassure Ukraine of their continued support, they are unlikely to make clear Discuss the possibility of Ukraine joining the Western military alliance in the future.
“Ukraine is moving closer to NATO,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels on Friday (July 5).
Stoltenberg added: “More money, more military support, more security agreements and more interoperability form the bridge to Ukraine joining NATO and it is a very strong package that Ukraine got at the (Washington) summit.”
But how close is “close”?
NATO’s official line so far has been that Ukraine will join the Western military alliance “someday,” but only if the country remains at war and meets two conditions set out in the treaty: democracy and contribution to security.
While Ukrainian officials privately acknowledge that they do not expect an invitation to join NATO at this summit or in the near future, they also emphasize that Kiev “at the very least” wants Washington to toughen its rhetoric.
If not, “we would like to see a similar invitation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told BloombergHe added that it would be seen as a “sign that no one is afraid of Putin and everyone believes in American leadership.”
Ghosts of Vilnius
The language issue among NATO member states was put on the agenda as early as last year’s Vilnius summit.
“Ukraine’s future lies in NATO,” NATO leaders declare in statement Final Press Releasereaffirmed the current state of relations with Ukraine and established a high-level emergency consultation body.
But the watered-down language in the process failed to send a clear message about when EU membership would be granted, amid hesitation in Washington and Berlin.
Many staunch Ukrainian supporters see the Vilnius summit as an opportunity to put the memory of the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit behind them, which “welcomed” Ukraine and Georgia’s desire to join the Euro-Atlantic alliance but offered no concrete plans.
“For us, it feels a bit like a rehash: there is general agreement that NATO should ‘go beyond Bucharest’, but we are not honest with ourselves – and with them – about what that actually means,” a person involved in the negotiations at previous summits told European Events, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to speak more freely.
A disgruntled Zelensky returned to Ukraine and claimed that “Vilnius laid the foundation for Ukraine’s accession to NATO.”
“But despite the frustrations of the Battle of Vilnius, it is clear that winning the war may indeed be the only viable way out of the eternal NATO waiting room,” another person present at the talks told European Events.
NATO has been struggling to find a way to recognize Ukraine since the Vilnius conference progress Reform and modernize the armed forces and strive for membership of the club, while lowering Kiev’s expectations of joining the club sooner rather than later.
But according to several NATO diplomats familiar with the negotiations, on the eve of this year’s Washington summit, the parties were still discussing the wording to balance views on when Ukraine would become a NATO member and how to link words such as “bridge”, “irreversible” and “reform”.
The issue is unlikely to be fully resolved when the leaders arrive in Washington on Tuesday (July 9).
A bridge separates
“We are developing a set of deliverables as a bridge to joining the organization,” a State Department official told reporters days before the Washington summit.
This would include institutionalizing Western support and training for Ukraine, Political and financial commitment of €40 billion per yearThey added that NATO also announced its commitment to Ukraine’s membership and appointed a NATO envoy to Kiev.
Eastern European NATO members are pressing Kiev for a clear road map.
Estonia’s deputy defense policy minister, Tuli Dunedun, told reporters that Ukraine’s strongest supporters “want to say in the strongest terms that Ukraine will one day become a NATO member and build bridges to joining NATO in all the practical work currently being done.”
But the Biden administration and most other NATO members have so far stopped short of supporting Ukraine’s immediate membership in the alliance, and there are divisions over whether and how to strengthen NATO’s rhetoric on Ukraine’s future membership this time around.
Negotiations on the text of the draft declaration are expected to continue until the last minute, people familiar with the matter told European Events.
A bridge to NATOSeveral senior NATO officials recently said the moves, which include concrete military aid and training to modernize the armed forces and a commitment to declare Kyiv’s path to joining the Western military alliance “irreversible,” could earn Kyiv strengthened rhetoric from all sides and could be seen as progress.
Three NATO diplomats told Euractiv that the “bridge” narrative suggests Ukraine is close to joining NATO and is expected to continue to do so.
A U.S. State Department official said “(NATO) allies will not consider a formal invitation,” dampening Ukraine’s hopes of joining the alliance, a view echoed by most NATO diplomats.
It is unclear how Ukraine will respond.
Some NATO diplomats do, however, question whether this particular language used to label Ukraine’s progress is of any benefit, as it complicates NATO’s commitment to Ukraine that they will one day become a NATO member.
A senior European diplomat told European Events: “It is good that we are in the business of building bridges, the question is how strong and stable are these bridges?”
They added: “It makes a big difference whether the bridge is made of paper, wood or steel, and whether it is a short or long distance.”
Another NATO diplomat also said: “We don’t know how long the bridge is.”
The need for reform
At the same time, there are divisions among NATO members, with some wanting Ukraine’s development to be unhindered by the additional conditions of the existing NATO treaty — namely, the ability to contribute to NATO’s security and democracy — and others wanting to remind Kiev that it still has a long way to go in reform.
The United States and Germany hope to lower the war-torn country’s expectations by tying its future membership of the European Union to domestic reforms, and have said progress on EU membership could stall if there is no progress on that issue.
Many of the reforms required for Ukraine to join NATO are also part of the EU process. These include continuing democratic reforms and reforms of Ukraine’s security and defense sectors.
The State Department official said Kyiv had made significant progress on reforms since last year’s Vilnius summit, including in defense procurement.
Other NATO diplomats highlighted the swapping of senior officials, such as the appointment of defense ministers, and changes related to corruption.
“Reforms are needed, and the focus right now is on providing Ukraine with the assistance it needs,” the U.S. official said.
Public opinion is divided
A dozen foreign policy experts on Wednesday (July 3) called on NATO member states to avoid pushing Ukraine to join the alliance at the NATO summit, according to a letter from more than 60 analysts seen by European Events.
The group’s main argument supports the assumption of opponents of Ukraine’s membership in NATO that if Kiev joins NATO, a future Russian attack on Ukraine could trigger NATO’s Article 5, the mutual defense clause.
“The closer NATO comes to committing Ukraine to NATO membership once the war is over, the greater the incentive for Russia to continue fighting,” the groups wrote in the letter.
They added: “The challenge posed by Russia can be met without bringing Ukraine into NATO.”
From RAND Corporation debate It would be in the interest of NATO members to make clear to Ukraine at the NATO summit the terms of its future membership.
this Atlantic CouncilThere are also Always pushing Supports Ukraine’s membership of NATO, saying the move would prove to Kiev that Western support will continue in the long term.
But the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said Ukrainians said they wanted to see more weapons from the West, rather than quick deliveries when they joined NATO polling Released on Wednesday.
Only 22% of Ukrainian respondents said they would support joining NATO in exchange for Russia giving up occupied Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, a large majority (71%) opposed any such deal.
(Editing by Rajnish Singh)
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