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Left-handedExtent of loss Suffered Wagner Group The recent offensive launched by the Malian army in the Tinsawateng region has exposed the fragility of Mali’s counter-insurgency system.
The media reported the attack as Biggest loss Served for several years in Africa as a member of the Russian paramilitary forces.
Despite conflicting reports, at least 80 Russian mercenaries and an unknown number of Malian soldiers were killed in the rebel ambush. Tuareg rebels Operator Next toMuslim Nusrat Jamia Millenia (JNIM)
The crisis in Mali involves Four dimensions.
These include a long-standing Tuareg insurgency in northern Mali, jihadist terrorism, communal conflicts, and the military’s intrusion into political life, which has kept certain stakeholders away from governance.
Despite the military coup, the situation has not improved 2020. The Mutiny They claim They intervene to prevent the disorder from getting worse. Anti-French sentiment to gain the support of citizens.
But Mari continue Terrorist attacks occurred frequently and resurgence of insurgency occurred.
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As researchers in Security and Strategic StudiesWe have Do research on violent extremism, terrorism, insurgency, Crisis Management and the fragility of African states.
We believe that despite the populist rhetoric of the Malian military, Some recent successesThree main factors explain the ongoing insecurity.
The first is the government’s inability to adapt to the changing dynamics of counterinsurgency operations. The second is the failure to recognize the importance of terrain and air capabilities. Finally, limited military assistance and foreign influence have weakened counterinsurgency operations.
To reverse the trend of increasing insecurity, Mali’s counter-insurgency forces must adapt and respond effectively to these factors.
After the coup, Mali’s military junta I broke it She also orchestrated the withdrawal of the UN mission from Mali and boosted security cooperation with Russia.
She further defended Liptako-Gurma Charter Who gave birthAlliance of Sahel States Established with Burkina Faso and Niger.
The emergence of this alliance has led to the division of West African countries into two groups: the pro-Western and liberal democratic group, and the pro-Russian group led by the military junta.
Despite pledges by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to boost security in the region, violence persists Increase 5% growth in 2023 (46% growth compared to 2021).
As Report According to data on locations and events of armed conflict, violence against civilians in Mali increased by 38% in 2023.
The main groups responsible for these attacks are JNIM and Islamic countries in the Sahel.
Implementing JNIM Large-scale attacks Target military facilities, block key cities and major transportation routes, as shown in the figure below.
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Insurgencies tend to evolve over time. If counterinsurgency forces cannot effectively adapt or respond to these changes, they risk losing their effectiveness.
The conflict in northern Mali has intensified, with fighting and attacks spreading to new areas, exacerbated by military operations and the involvement of the Wagner Group.
The situation has further deteriorated as armed confrontation with government forces has resumed. Tuareg rebels Who accepted in 2015Algiers Agreement End the war in Mali.
To understand the failure of the counterinsurgency in northern Mali, it is necessary to examine Geographical environment.
Mali lies to the west of the Sahel, a vast buffer zone between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, both geographically and culturally. The region is characterized by large ungoverned areas.
Northern Mali is in this area, and it is also the most recent ambush It is a vast region with a limited state presence and long-standing activity by jihadist and Tuag factions.
Mali is a dry and mostly flat country. boundary The north stretches over 2,000 kilometers with Algeria and is poorly policed. The nature of these borders makes it easier for insurgents to see the enemy approaching in advance.
The Malian army does not have the resources and sophisticated military means to compensate for the dead security structure. Task Multilateral and bilateral militaries.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the country’s air capabilities.
The air power is central Used in counterinsurgency operations. Light attack aircraft, helicopters and combat drones are essential to providing effective and timely close air support.
They must also remain in theater and respond quickly to emerging threats on a rapidly changing, unpredictable battlefield.
In recent years, the Malian armed forces Received A range of military equipment, from armored vehicles to helicopters to the C295 light transport aircraft.
In 2022, Bamako received Russian ground attack aircraft and attack helicopters.
Malian Air Force About 2,000 peoplewith 20 combat aircraft and 7 attack helicopters.
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All the progress made over the past decade to improve the country’s overall military capabilities is now at risk as the international military support mission is withdrawn.
In fact, Mali has gone from multiple military partnerships to a singular dependence on Russia. Russia is currently unable to provide support to Mali due to the war in Ukraine, which makes the Kremlin nervous. recover Iranian and North Korean weapons.
Finally, the counterinsurgency effort in Mali underestimated the role that foreign actors could play in causing strategic and operational failures in military operations through proxy warfare, supply chain disruptions, and encouraging defections.
For example, Ukrainian military intelligence explain She was involved in a recent ambush on Malian soldiers and Russian mercenaries.
As military-ruled Mali struggles to fend off threats from a variety of armed non-state actors, its approach to counterinsurgency needs to be reexamined.
Attention must focus on the state’s fragility, porous borders, limited military capabilities, and the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
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