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this Casualties suffer Wagner Group Recent attacks by Pakistani and Malian forces in the Tinzaouaten region have exposed the fragility of Mali’s counterinsurgency posture.
Media reports said the attack was Maximum loss Provided guidance for Russian paramilitary operations in Africa over the next several years.
Despite conflicting reports, at least 80 Russian mercenaries An undisclosed number of Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush Tuareg rebels and Muslim Nusrat Jamia Millenia – Al-Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel.
Mali crisis Four layers.
They are the protracted Tuareg insurgency in northern Mali, jihadist terrorism, communal conflicts, and military intrusion into politics that has prevented some stakeholders from participating in governance.
although 2020 Military coup. Coup leaders claim They stepped in to prevent further chaos. They used Anti-French sentiment to gain the support of citizens.
But Mari continue Terrorist attacks are frequent and insurgent activities are resurgent.
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As a scholar Security and Strategic Studieswe have been Research violent extremism, terrorism, insurgency, Crisis Management and state fragility in Africa.
We believe that despite the Malian military Some recent successesthere are at least three reasons for the persistent insecurity.
First, the government was unable to adapt to the changing landscape of counterinsurgency operations. Second, it failed to recognize the importance of terrain and air power. Finally, limited military aid and foreign forces weakened counterinsurgency operations.
To reverse growing insecurity, Mali’s counter-insurgency forces must adapt and respond effectively to these factors.
After the coup, Mali’s military junta Cut off China has also actively promoted relations with France, planned the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping forces from Mali, and strengthened security cooperation with Russia.
It also advocates Liptako-Gurma Charter Born Alliance of Sahel States Established with Burkina Faso and Niger
The emergence of the Sahel Alliance has led to the division of West African countries into pro-Western, liberal democratic factions and pro-Russian, military-led factions.
Political violence continues in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger despite pledges to boost security in the region. resurrection It will grow by 5% in 2023 (46% compared to 2021).
As Reported According to data on locations and events of armed conflict, violence against civilians in Mali increased by 38% in 2023.
The main groups responsible for these attacks are Muslim Nusrat Jamia Millenia and Sahel.
The Muslim League has launched Large-scale attacks At military installations and blocked towns and major transportation routes, as shown in the map below.
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UN troops withdraw from Mali: How will the security situation change?
Insurgencies tend to evolve over time. If counterinsurgency forces cannot adapt or effectively respond to these changes, their effectiveness will be reduced.
The conflict in northern Mali has intensified, with fighting and attacks occurring in new areas as a result of military operations and the involvement of the Wagner Group.
The situation was further exacerbated by the resumption of armed conflict. Tuareg rebels In 2012, he agreed Algiers Agreement End the war in Mali.
To understand why counterinsurgency efforts in northern Mali have failed, it is important to examine its geography. context.
Mali lies on the western side of the Sahel, a vast buffer zone between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, both geographically and culturally. This part of Africa is a largely stateless zone.
Northern Mali is located in this region and is the most recent ambush It is a vast region with limited government intervention, where jihadists and Tuareg factions have long been active.
Mali is dry and mostly flat. boundary Pakistan’s border with Algeria stretches for 2,000 kilometers and is not well-securityed. The nature of these border areas makes it easier for insurgents to detect an incoming enemy attack.
The Malian military does not have sufficient resources and sophisticated military assets to replace the security architecture provided by defunct multilateral and bilateral military institutions. Task.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the country’s air power.
Air power central Counterinsurgency operations. Light attack aircraft, helicopters, and combat drones are key to providing timely and effective close air support.
They must also remain in theater and respond quickly to emerging threats on a volatile and unpredictable battlefield.
In recent years, the Malian armed forces Received A range of military equipment, from armored vehicles and helicopters to the C295 light transport aircraft.
In 2022, Bamako received a number of Russian ground attack aircraft and attack helicopters.
Mali air forcewith 20 combat aircraft and 7 attack helicopters.
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Three possible changes in Mali after the French withdrawal — and two options for the military junta
With the withdrawal of the international military support mission, any progress the country has made in improving its overall military capabilities over the past decade is now at risk.
This is because Mali has gone from multiple military partnerships to complete dependence on Russia. Russia is currently unable to provide support to Mali due to the war in Ukraine, which has forced the Kremlin to Clear For armaments of Iran and North Korea.
Finally, the counterinsurgency effort in Mali underestimates the role that foreign powers can play in causing strategic and operational failures of military operations through proxy warfare, supply chain disruptions, and the encouragement of defections.
For example, Ukrainian military intelligence claim It was involved in recent ambushes targeting Malian soldiers and Russian mercenaries.
Military-led Mali faces threats from a variety of non-state armed forces, and its counterinsurgency strategy needs an overhaul.
Focus should be placed on the country’s fragility, porous borders, strained military capabilities, and the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
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