Wagner’s bloody defeat in Mali shows cracks in Russia’s Sahel strategy

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Last November, shortly after the Malian army captured the Tuareg rebel stronghold of Kidal, Russian Wagner Group mercenaries supporting government forces briefly flew the national flag over the city for a photo op.

Caleb Weiss, a Sahel expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that in the coming months, Russian mercenaries would post provocative or bold images on their Telegram channels, “openly mocking” the Tuareg and Islamic extremist groups vying for control of the country.

Also read: Russian Wagner mercenaries reportedly among those killed in Mali fighting

Now, eight months later, the Tuareg, backed by the Islamist extremist group, are celebrating a victory after the two forces killed dozens of Wagner fighters and Malian soldiers outside the northeastern town of Tinzaouaten late last week in what may have been a coordinated ambush, according to multiple reports.

Weiss said the combat losses could be the biggest since Russian forces returned to Africa a few years ago, and could be comparable to the number of French soldiers who died while serving in Africa from 2013 to 2022.

The rout of Russian mercenaries in Mali could have repercussions beyond the borders of the impoverished and unstable country. Africa has emerged as a major battleground in Russia’s rivalry with the West over the past few years as Moscow seeks to reshape the international order.

Moscow has long provided regime protection and other services to authoritarian governments in Africa, with operations recently expanding to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger as military coups swept across the Sahel region.

Location map: Tinzaouten, Mali

Malian forces were ambushed during a battle with Wagner forces near Tinzaouaten on the Algerian border on July 27. Videos posted on social media showed the bodies of about two dozen purported Wagner fighters, but RFE/RL could not verify the authenticity of the videos.

Telegram channel Wagner Orchestra reported that dozens of mercenaries were killed and five others captured in fighting near Tinzawateng. Meanwhile, Tuareg separatists said in a statement that “dozens” of what they called enemy fighters were killed and wounded. The al-Qaeda affiliate said 50 mercenaries and 10 Malian armed forces fighters were killed.

Participants in the attack on Wagner’s forces and Mali’s forces.

Joseph Siegel, director of research at the Center for Strategic and African Studies in Washington, told Radio Free Europe that the complete elimination of Wagner’s forces in Mali was “significant because it shatters the myth that security had improved under the military regime.” He also said it “seriously damaged” the reputation of the Russian military in the region.

Wagner’s troops were invited to Mali by the military junta that came to power in 2021. The junta has been at odds with French troops over their failure to stop attacks by Islamist extremists. France has lost 59 of its roughly 2,400 troops in Mali during its nine-year presence in the country.

The junta, backed by Wagner, ordered thousands of UN troops to leave the country to preserve a 2015 ceasefire between the Tuareg and the authorities. Months after they left, Malian and Wagner forces attacked Kidal, further unrest.

People stand near a makeshift memorial near the Kremlin in Moscow to commemorate Wagner principal Yevgeny Prigozhin and others who died with him in a plane crash in 2023.

Russia has more than 1,000 Wagner fighters in Mali, about half the force deployed by France, which is insufficient to meet the threat, Siegel said.

The Tinzavatten debacle exposed the “unsustainability of Russia’s strategy in the Sahel,” Siegel said. “It works for the junta and Russia, but it doesn’t work for the people. Social conditions are deteriorating.”

Weiss said the losses were unlikely to lead Russia to withdraw Wagner units from Mali, as it did after several fighters were killed in Mozambique.

“Putin and the Kremlin have invested a lot in Mali and the Sahel. It’s not like Mozambique here,” Weiss, who is based in Uganda, told RFE/RL. “However, they may not attack with the same determination as they did in Kidal.”

At the same time, he said groups in power in Mali and other African countries were unlikely to abandon Russia as a protector because they had few other options after alienating the West.

Lew Osborne, an analyst at open source research group All Eyes on Wagner, said Russia’s campaign in Mali appeared to have been a failure so far.

“Previously, the Malian authorities managed to reach agreements with the Tuareg in order to focus on the jihadists. This is no longer the case and all agreements have been violated, not least because the Malian army and Russian mercenaries are using brutal methods against all opponents without exception,” he told RFE/RL.

Yauhen Lehalau, Mark Krutov and Sergei Dobrynin of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Russian Service contributed to this report.

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