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The Paris Olympics will open this week, with the United States leading the way in medals. China is unlikely to surpass the United States in total medals, but has a chance to win more gold medals than the United States.
While the Olympics highlight great individual athletes, they also take the place of geopolitical influence and national pride.
The United States is expected to win a total of 112 medals: 39 gold, 32 silver and 41 bronze. China is expected to win a total of 86 medals: 34 gold, 27 silver and 25 bronze.
The forecast comes from Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which provides statistical analysis to sports leagues around the world. It also tracks major Olympic-related competitions ahead of the Games.
In 2021, at the Tokyo Olympics, which was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, the United States and China finished 1-2 in both categories.
The IOC does not give medal rankings. Gracenote calculates its ranking based on the total number of medals won, but other companies rank based on the total number of gold medals won.
The American prediction is not surprising. This will be the eighth consecutive time that the United States has won the most medals in a Summer Olympics. In Barcelona 1992, the “Unified Team” (Russia) topped the total, a team composed of athletes from the Soviet Union just after it collapsed as a sovereign nation.
The last time the United States did not top the medal table at the Summer Olympics was in Beijing in 2008.
After the United States and China, the following countries in total number and total number of gold medals are: Britain (63-17), France (60-27), Australia (54-15), Japan (47-13), Italy (46 -11), Germany (35-11), the Netherlands (34-16), and South Korea (26-9).
The next 11 to 20 places are: Canada (21-7), Hungary (20-7), Brazil (18-8), Spain (18-5), Poland (17-3), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4), New Zealand (14-4), Ukraine (13-2), and Ethiopia (12-6).
Countries always see a boost to their medal counts as the host nation, with France expected to nearly triple its gold medal tally in Tokyo.
This time, the medal will feature a small piece of the Eiffel Tower.
Host countries spend more to hold the Olympics in their own country, and their own audiences support athletes competing in familiar surroundings.
At the Tokyo Olympics three years ago, the Japanese team won a record 58 medals in total and 27 gold medals.
Unknown is the presence of Russian and, to a lesser extent, Belarusian athletes, who have missed most of the international competitions over the past two years due to the war in Ukraine. Under IOC rules, medals won by these athletes may not be included in any medals table.
Three years ago, more than 300 Russian athletes competed in Tokyo. This time, the total may be just a dozen.
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