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The U.S. Navy’s deployment of new very-long-range air-to-air missiles in the Indo-Pacific region could eliminate China’s air superiority, experts say, part of a move to enhance power projection amid high tensions in the region.
The AIM-174B is based on the existing Raytheon SM-6 air defense missile and is the longest-range air defense missile ever deployed by the United States. It received official approval in July.
It has three key advantages: It can fly several times farther than the next best American choice, the AIM-120 AMRAAM; it does not require a new production line; and it is compatible with aircraft from at least one ally, Australia.
Crucially, weapons such as the AIM-174B can engage aerial targets up to 400 kilometers (250 miles) away, out-ranged China’s PL-15 missile, allowing U.S. warplanes to move threats farther from aircraft carriers and safely strike “high-value” Chinese targets such as command and control aircraft.
“The United States can ensure the safety of its important assets such as aircraft carrier battle groups and launch long-range strikes against PLA targets,” said Zhong Jie, a researcher at the Strategic Outlook Institute, a Taipei think tank.
The West has not yet been able to do this easily.
The AIM-120 is the standard long-range missile for U.S. warplanes, with a maximum range of about 150 kilometers (93 miles), which requires the aircraft launching the missile to penetrate deep into disputed areas, putting aircraft carriers at greater risk of anti-ship attacks.
Any kind of conflict in the South China Sea would mean the U.S. Navy would be operating within hundreds of kilometers of its Chinese adversaries, within the so-called first island chain, which stretches roughly from northeastern Indonesia to mainland Japan.
Supporting a Taiwanese invasion would bring the Navy into closer contact.
The AIM-174B changes that, keeping the PLA’s carrier-killer aircraft out of range and even endangering aircraft attacking Taiwan, Cheih said, adding that it increases the likelihood that the United States will be drawn into a major conflict in the region.
“Most importantly, it would allow the United States to penetrate further into the South China Sea during a conflict,” said a senior U.S. defense technology analyst, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“And it could change Chinese behavior because it would put large, slow, less maneuverable aircraft at greater risk.”
Range advantage
For decades, America’s advantage in stealth fighters, first with the F-117, then with the F-22 and F-35, meant that only missiles like the AIM-120 were needed.
The U.S. military also favors developing AMRAAM as a cheaper alternative to new missiles that could significantly improve their capabilities over a few decades, said Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
The Missile Defense Advocacy Coalition says the cost of each SM-6 missile is estimated to be about $4 million, while the cost of each AMRAAM missile is about $1 million.
European nations, which until recently mastered stealth technology, developed the MBDA-produced ramjet-powered Meteor missile, which has a range of 200 kilometers (124 miles).
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said the emergence of Chinese stealth aircraft such as the J-20 and, more importantly, its internally-carried PL-15 missile, which has a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles) or more, has eroded the U.S. advantage.
Now, she said, Chinese stealth aircraft could theoretically detect non-stealth U.S. aircraft and shoot them down well beyond the range of their counterattack.
Even American stealth aircraft might be forced to fly very close to launch missiles.
“If the Chinese fighters have a longer range than the U.S. fighters, that means they can strike first,” she said. “It’s hard to escape a Mach 4 attack.”
The AIM-174B was developed to quickly meet this need.
The secretive Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) Opens in new tab The AIM-260 is another U.S. Air Force program that has been in development for at least seven years to develop a very long-range air-to-air missile small enough to be carried inside a stealth aircraft.
Lockheed Martin declined to comment on the project.
Bronk said China is developing missiles with longer range than the PL-15, but the radar of the launching aircraft may not be able to detect targets at such distances.
He added: “If the missile is too big and too heavy, it will eventually come at the expense of aircraft fuel.”
Availability
Using Raytheon Co’s (RTX.N) SM-6 missile, originally designed for ship-based air defense, means production lines are already available. Funding has been set aside for production of more than 100 SM-6 missiles per year.
Raytheon declined to say how many AIM-174Bs it would produce or whether existing SM-6s would be retrofitted.
So far, it has only been demonstrated on a U.S. Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet aircraft, which is operated by the U.S. and Australian militaries.
The United States views Australia as a key ally and a location for projecting power in the South China Sea, and has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military infrastructure there.
Australia’s Department of Defence said it was “working closely with the United States to understand capability options available to Australia for consideration”.
The U.S. Department of Defense referred questions about the AIM-174B to the U.S. Navy.
The Navy said the missile is “operationally deployed” but declined to comment on whether it would be provided to allies, integrated into other aircraft or how many AIM-174Bs it would need each year.
Peter Layton, a defense and aviation expert at the Griffith Asia Institute, said that the SM-6 missile has a wide range of uses and can be used not only to attack ships and land targets, but also missiles, which opens up more possibilities for the AIM-174B missile.
For example, if equipped with an anti-radar seeker, it can attack and destroy surface-to-air missile launchers from extremely long ranges.
However, the senior technical analyst said that for now, adding the AIM-174B to the U.S. Navy’s arsenal, even in small numbers, would change the landscape of regional conflict.
The analyst added: “If that’s enough to hold back (China’s high-value) aircraft, then it won’t take much more.”
“Because threats cause adversaries to change their behavior…it makes the situation in the South China Sea easier to deal with.”
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