Ukraine ventures into Russia

Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region shocked Ukrainians, their allies and, especially, Russia.

Ukrainian forces have launched brief overnight raids on Russian territory before, including earlier this year in the Kursk region near Russia’s western border. But those were quick incursions followed by hasty retreats. This time was different: Ukraine successfully seized Nearly 400 square miles There are still several hundred Russian soldiers to this day.

The Ukrainian offensive began more than a week ago on August 6. The number of Ukrainian troops is unclear, but Thousands of — Armored vehicles crossed the border from northeastern Ukraine. It is not yet clear what the scale of the fighting is, but Ukrainian troops reportedly At least facing some Russian defenses.

Ukraine has not said what its military objectives are, and there are likely more than one. No other official besides President Zelensky has spoken publicly about them. President says “Russia brought war to other countries, and now it’s going home.” Still, the ongoing invasion has provided a morale boost to Ukrainians, who desperately needed it after two and a half years of grueling war.

Russia’s response to the Kursk operation was extremely slow. This may be partly because its military structure is hierarchical — the higher up the hierarchy the decision-making process, the slower it moves — but also because Russia has recently undergone significant instability. Crucially, Russian troops are also stuck in eastern Ukraine, where they have been making gains in recent months.

Russia’s rhetoric in response has also been quite muted. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s military establishment have described stopping the Ukrainian army’s advance as a counterterrorism operation, not a full-scale military operation. Part of Russia’s overall strategy is to portray its war in Ukraine both as a life-or-death war and as a “special military operation” to make Russians feel that it is less worrisome than a full-scale war and to assure them that it will not affect their lives.

Ukraine’s strategy in the Kursk region makes this goal more difficult to maintain, because so far About 200,000 Russians evacuated their homes due to the invasion—and the Russian government only offered Approximately $115 for compensation.

Ukraine’s continued aggression against Russia has political significance, especially in attracting attention and support from the United States and other allies. Two and a half years after the war began, global attention has shifted from the Ukrainian front to Israel’s war in Gaza and the upcoming US election.

Support for Ukraine in the United States has also been waning. Republicans in Congress Attempts to cut or eliminate critical U.S. military aid and overall U.S. support Possible risks If Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is able to return to the White House in November.

This successful and sustained incursion into Russia demonstrated that Ukraine remains a disciplined fighting force capable of successfully executing battlefield objectives through a sophisticated strategy. Reminding outside powers that Ukraine can succeed militarily and can still win this war helped solidify support that is critical to maintaining the flow of ammunition, combat vehicles, fighter jets and spare parts, and other equipment.

There are also practical benefits to an invasion. To counter the Ukrainian offensive, Russia would need to withdraw some of its troops from the Ukrainian front. However, Russia has limited options for doing so; it is trying to avoid withdrawing its soldiers from fighting in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which Russia falsely claims as its territory.

Troop movement has begun Riley BaileyRussian Analyst, Institute for the Study of War Although the scale has not yet reached the level that Russia really needs Fight off attacks and reclaim territory.

“We’ve seen reports that up to 11 Russian battalions of troops were moved from other parts of the front to form this hastily assembled force in Kursk Oblast,” Bailey told Vox TV. This part of the border is thinly defended on the Russian side, which may have influenced Ukrainian decision-making.

It’s impossible to predict what effect the Ukrainian offensive will have on the end of the war. But it will have an immediate and broader impact, especially on Russia, Bailey said. “They’re going to have to make a lot of theater-wide decisions that they wouldn’t have made before.”

Ultimately, the invasion could also give Ukraine greater leverage in the future, such as a prisoner exchange or even a negotiated end to the war — if they can hold on to the territory.

Ukraine has been very tight-lipped about the entire operation so far, which shows how sophisticated it is. But there are serious questions about how long Ukraine can maintain this tempo of operations, and whether they can hold on to the territory. They plan to doaccording to Katharina ZiskProfessor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.

Ukraine has already sent troops to participate in this invasion, and these troops can also be used on other fronts; in order to seize Russian resources from the east, It is diverting itself from a critical front.

Ukraine is already in trouble in terms of the number of troops it can mobilize, and is very limited in the number of men it can mobilize.

As early as July, According to ReutersWhen the war broke out, military morale was low; Zelensky lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25, and frontline soldiers were exhausted after two years of non-stop fighting.

Even if this battlefield success translates into a successful recruiting campaign, it does not mean that Ukraine will suddenly have thousands of highly qualified, effective soldiers.

“You can get anyone to drive a truck or clean toilets, but you can’t easily find effective combatants,” Mathieu Bouleger, a defense analyst at the European Centre for Policy Analysis, told Reuters.

Ukraine remains outnumbered in both manpower and firepower; Russia is acquiring drones, ballistic missiles, and ammunition from partners such as Iran, China, and North Korea, and is still working to improve domestic weapons manufacturing, although this is somewhat challenging because Sanctions on its economy.

The Kursk invasion did not change the fact that Russia was still destroying Kharkov and making progress in Crimea, although part of the purpose of the Kursk invasion seemed to be Weakening Russian air power And may further mobilize forces outside Crimea.

So far, Ukraine’s sneak attack may have broken Russia’s — and Putin’s — idea of ​​controlling the war. But it has yet to significantly ease the pressure on the eastern front, or stop Russian attacks on Ukrainian towns. As more Russian reinforcements arrive, it will become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to maintain that intensity — which is exactly what Ukraine needs to really exert leverage over Russia in future territorial swaps or peace talks.