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(Ahmad Darwish)
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February 28, 1446
September 1, 2024 AD
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Why did Hasina seek refuge in India, why did the vast majority of Bangladeshi people have to endure the weakening and impoverishment that India has caused in their own country, and why did India see Hasina’s fall as a weakening of its influence in the regional surroundings?
Bangladesh’s political path has taken a dramatic turn with the fall of the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled with an iron fist for decades and perpetrated widespread human rights violations, not to mention widespread corruption in the country, which has fled the country due to a popular uprising. dictatorship Leaving aside the national context, this event was more than an internal political coup. Rather, it had wide-ranging international repercussions as world powers tried to make their case in anticipation and caution, but it was undoubtedly a major turning point in the country’s political arena and posed complex challenges to India’s closest neighbours. What are these challenges. Why is India so angry at the Bangladeshi people’s success in overthrowing Sheikh Hasina?
India’s position
India supports its first ally Sheikh "Hasina" Faced with angry student protests, the government sought to deprive them of employment rights through the controversial government job quota system, which was designed by the Hasina government for the benefit of the beneficiaries and those close to the ruling party. "People’s Alliance"However, as events intensified and developments unfolded, protests in the streets and squares of Bangladesh continued for weeks, India’s stance on ending Hasina’s rule after she fled Bangladesh seemed hesitant, reflecting India’s concerns about the impact of this change on its regional security.
So the Indian government is playing tricks, hoping to find an outlet to express its dissatisfaction with what is happening, so calls for ensuring the safety of Bangladesh’s minorities reflect legitimate concerns but do not hide the truth. In fact, India is looking forward to using this shift to strengthen its influence in Dhaka.
The protests that led to the resignation of Hasina’s government were rife with anti-India sentiment, with many protesters accusing Hasina’s government of being too accommodating to Indian interests.
It is noteworthy that India, a country that attacks Muslims day and night and tries every possible means to deprive them of democratic and human rights, has suddenly activated the right of Hindus to reside in Bangladesh, even though the people of Bangladesh have protected the lives and properties of minorities with due respect since ancient times.
Connectivity and partnerships
Sheikh Hasina has ruled Bangladesh for more than 15 years and its close relationship with India is seen by many as a strategic alliance. The partnership is rooted in historical ties that date back to Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. However, as Sheikh Hasina came to power, in which India played a key role, her government faced increasing criticism for authoritarianism, human rights violations and a lack of democratic freedoms.
India stood firmly with Bangladesh during its independence and during the establishment of its founding family "Mujibur Rahman" His daughter Sheikh Hasina has achieved secular rule in the country, from which New Delhi has benefited politically, strategically, economically and security-wise.
Bilateral trade between the two countries has also increased, with Indian companies striking major deals, such as the coal deal between Hasina’s government and the Adani Group, led by Indian billionaire business tycoon Ahmed Shah. "Gautam Adani"whose rise is closely linked to the rise of the Prime Minister "Modi".
The roots of hostility with India
The protests that led to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina’s government were marked by strong anti-India sentiment, with many protesters accusing Hasina’s government of being too accommodating to Indian interests, particularly in areas such as "Water Sharing and Border Security Agreement"These anti-India sentiments have grown over time and pose a major challenge to New Delhi.
India’s long-standing support for Hasina’s government, despite its authoritarian tendencies, has alienated a large section of the Bangladeshi public from its stance of supporting an authoritarian and unpopular government.
India’s failure to engage with Bangladeshi opposition parties and civil society groups also leaves it vulnerable to a changing political landscape, and if the new government adopts a more nationalist stance, India could find itself facing increasing hostility and deteriorating relations.
Regional changes
Recent changes in command centers around India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Afghanistan, as well as signs of change in Bhutan, which is on the verge of resolving the Sino-Bhutan border dispute, are undoubtedly influencing the balance of power in the region in favor of China and Pakistan.
India hopes to gain a pivotal position in the inter-oceanic region "Indo-Pacific" Its immediate neighbour is slipping from its grasp with the support of the United States and it cannot coexist with it amid all this clearly visible hostility and polarisation.
India will have to readjust its policies to deal with its historical relations with Bangladesh, just as it dealt with its relations with Afghanistan under the Taliban after the overthrow of the pro-Indian Kabul government backed by the US. In the case of the former British colony, Bangladesh also emerged as a loser for India.
Geographical Challenges
Many experts and policy analysts in India are currently expressing their concerns, which have been escalating over time, as India now has hostile relations with Pakistan, unfriendly relations with China, has lost the Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan, and is also precarious in Afghanistan. India wants to regain…strategic depth.
All these political facts unequivocally confirm that for a country, especially one as vast and populous as India, nothing is more challenging than living with hostile neighbors.
Dreams fade away
India hopes to gain a pivotal position in the inter-oceanic region "Indo-Pacific" With the support of the United States, its immediate neighbourhood is slipping from its grasp, and it cannot coexist with this palpable hostility and polarisation.
Sheikh Hasina, who lived in India for six years in exile in the 1970s and is a staunch supporter of her Bangladeshi government, is not expected to keep her there for long because of the sensitivity of the incident.
Hasina’s space is shrinking, the US has cancelled her visa and the UK seems unwilling to grant her asylum, as evidenced by the request of the British foreign minister "David Lamy" A UN-led investigation into events in Bangladesh over the past few weeks has heightened India’s anxiety and eroded its hopes of regaining control of power in Bangladesh to safeguard its strategic interests.
The rise of the strongest competitor
Bangladesh’s political turmoil is a major opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region. China has been actively investing in Bangladesh through its Belt and Road Initiative, and a new government that is less aligned with India’s position may welcome increased investment. Chinese investment and support will pose a strategic challenge to India, which is wary of China’s growing influence in South Asia, as increased Chinese influence in Bangladesh could undermine India’s influence and complicate its strategic calculations in the region.
Persecution by the Indian government
There is no doubt that developments in Bangladesh are likely to have a negative impact on India’s domestic politics, and the Modi government, which has close ties with the Hasina government, may face political prosecution and questioning over its dealings and relations with Bangladesh.
India’s opposition parties have already begun using the situation to question the effectiveness and viability of the government’s foreign policy, and concerns about the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, especially in light of fears of Islamists coming to power, are likely to become a focal point of India’s political discussion.
The Indian National Congress and other opposition parties are likely to use the situation to criticize the Modi government’s approach to regional diplomacy, arguing that it failed to foresee the strength of Hasina’s opposition, which could increase pressure on the government to develop a clear strategy to deal with Bangladesh’s new political landscape.
Final Words
The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh is a major turning point with far-reaching consequences for India, with the loss of a key ally that had been aligned with India’s vision for years and growing anti-Indian sentiment among the population. All of this poses a major challenge to New Delhi and its government, which won the last general election by a smaller margin than before, given the increase in opposition votes in the Indian parliament. As a result, India, led by the extremist BJP, has only given India its own hand-made enemies and extremist leaders, and is politically surrounded by opponents chosen by the trust.
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