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The key to victory will be winning over Malay voters, many of whom do not support the “reform” movement.
Murray Hunt
Malaysia’s “reform” movement is modeled after the movement of the same name in Indonesia after the end of the Suharto era.
At the end of 1998, after then Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was dismissed by Mahathir, Malaysia’s “Reformasi” movement arose to protest against the Mahathir government’s tough style.
The “Reform Momomo” movement began as a movement to promote the spirit of change, and it took 25 years to form this brand.
The slogan has attracted a large number of staunch followers, including liberal and Western-educated Malays (who are disgusted by UMNO’s corruption and abuse of power), the large Chinese community represented by the Democratic Action Party, and parts of the Indian community.
Non-governmental organisations such as Bersih also promote a reform agenda inspired by the movement.
Anwar became the symbol of the “reform movement” that focused on his character, first working to free him from prison and then to bring him to power.
In 2018, Mahathir became prime minister of the Hope Alliance government, and Anwar was subsequently pardoned and released from prison, bringing hope for reform.
Anwar and Mahathir’s dispute
However, the presence of Anwar and Mahathir on the same stage has made the situation unstable. Anwar has been jokingly called the “prime minister-in-waiting” and casual political discussions seem to focus on the question of when Mahathir will step down and hand over power to Anwar.
Was the conflict between Anwar and Mahathir one of the underlying factors that led to the government’s downfall? Historians will debate the causes of the Sheraton coup in February 2020 for years to come.
Since Anwar finally took office in November 2022, the people have witnessed 18 months of his tenure as prime minister, much to the delight of his supporters.
Anwar and Reform
However, in the following months, some began to question Anwar’s commitment to reform. Some of his supporters explained what they saw as a cognitive dissonance with his promises of reform, saying that Anwar’s government was not a reform government because he had to lead a unity government decreed by the king at the time.
“True” Anwar supporters, who still believe that one day in the future he will wake up one morning and begin his reform agenda, urge patience.
The most fundamental thing is that today Anwar’s “reformist” followers all live in disappointment to varying degrees.
PKR’s stance
Cynics believe that PKR is just a tool to get Anwar elected prime minister. Sceptics believe that Pakatan Harapan has succumbed to pragmatism because the lure of becoming prime minister is too great.
This is another question that historians debate. Was Anwar’s candidacy for the prime ministership the ultimate goal?
Forming a coalition government with UMNO and having Zahid Hamidi as deputy prime minister while criminal charges are pending seems to be fine with the Pakatan Harapan leadership. This is the price that Pakatan Harapan must pay for forming and leading a government. Just a week ago during the 2022 election campaign, Zahid Hamidi and UMNO were bitter rivals for Pakatan Harapan.
To this day, this is still difficult for the support base of UMNO, PKR and DAP to accept.
Support from Sabah and Sarawak gave Anwar a clear majority in the Dewan Rakyat. Unless a black swan political event occurs before then, it is likely that Anwar will lead the same coalition as in the 16th General Election in 2027.
“Reform” won’t work
Anwar does not need reform to be re-elected as prime minister for a second term. Pakatan Harapan does not need a reform agenda in the next general election.
The DAP lost only two seats in the 2022 election and currently holds 40 seats. Most of these seats are in urban areas. Due to the uneven distribution of urban constituencies, any increase in support for the DAP will not result in any additional seats in the next general election (unless the Election Commission changes this).
PKR lost 16 seats and currently holds 31 seats in Parliament. Similarly, Amanah, the third largest party in the Pakatan Harapan coalition, also lost 3 seats and currently holds 8 seats.
Choose the lesser of two evils
In the upcoming general election, any campaigning around a “reform” platform will not increase Pakatan Harapan’s seat count in the new Parliament for two main reasons.
First, unless there is a significant change in direction in Pakatan Harapan and reforms are introduced before 2027, voters will no longer take a coalition on a “reform” platform seriously.
DAP will likely still maintain its traditional support, but the only reason liberals continue to vote for PKR is because they see the party as the lesser of two evils. Many believe the only alternative to a “coalition” would be a more extreme government.
Secondly, the demographics of voters in Malay-majority constituencies do not accept the Reformasi platform. Reformasi simply does not resonate with them. Voters are more sensitive to basic livelihood issues such as cost of living and wage security.
In the coming years, if Pakatan Harapan wants to win a larger Malay majority, it will have to quietly drop the word “reform”.
The Democratic Action Party faced huge changes, while UMNO survived.
Since the DAP cannot effectively lead any state government outside of Penang, the party may prefer policies to consolidate its natural stronghold of Penang.
The state is not without its challenges, with the Chinese and Indian populations declining in proportion. DAP will have to grapple with this. Beyond that, the party will be at best a junior partner in any future federal government, with only a handful of ministerial portfolios.
As Sabah and Sarawak seek more autonomy, peninsular states may follow suit. This could be the future for the DAP.
The key to winning the next general election is to win the support of Malay voters and maintain the existing coalition. The Hope Alliance has no choice but to rely on the sinking UMNO to survive.
This is a dilemma for Pakatan Harapan. As a result, the current style of governance will dominate the narrative of a “unity government” for the next few years. Factionalism within PKR is likely to become more pronounced as the party election approaches. Infighting within UMNO will continue to play out in the open. This dynamic has kept former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s problems alive.
Anwar’s watchers certainly see him pursuing the above strategy.
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