The parallel price of the US dollar has soared by 47% in one year

In one year and four months, Dollars sold on the street up 47.27% from official pricesThe rise is due to a shortage of currency in banks and vaults. Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB)Experts say this will lead to higher prices for imported products and greater speculation.

According to analysts consulted by EL DEBER, since the issuing entity announced Purchase of US dollars from export sectors at differentiated cost According to official quotes, effective since 2011, the currency price began to rise in the unregulated market. This was exacerbated by the intervention of Bank Fasil, one of the largest banks in the country.

The cost of North American currency has remained the same since 2011. As part of the monetary policy implemented by then-President Evo Morales. But after more than a decade of stability, the cost of buying and selling its business began to rise.

During this period, it exceeded the thresholds of Bs 7, 8, 9 and 10. Currently, Its cost is 10.25 pesos per dollar, far from the official price of 6.96 pesos. It is kept at the counters of central banks and other financial entities.

Economist Germán Molina believes that this phenomenon has far-reaching consequences for the national economy and reflects the lag in the exchange rate, where the official rate is set at 6.96 pesos. No longer sustainable due to lack of available US dollars Central bank reserves support this price.

He recalled that the fixed exchange rate has remained unchanged since November 2011; but a decade later, the demand for dollars has exceeded the central bank’s ability to meet public demand, “creating a huge gap between the official and parallel markets.”

For him, a rate above the official rate means higher prices for domestic and imported products. Even domestic products that use imported components will be affected because the cost of these inputs increases with the depreciation of the exchange rate.

Molina said that this situation Increase the cost of perishable and non-perishable goods. For perishable goods such as fish, meat and eggs, producers can raise prices, but consumers have the final say.

“If prices rise too much, consumers may choose not to buy, which helps stabilize prices. In contrast, non-perishable goods, Businesses are stockpiling products such as home appliances in anticipation of further depreciation of the dollar.restricting supply and fuelling speculation,” he noted.

The expert added that the current situation is worsening national production, as producers They cannot get dollars to import inputs.

He added that “many merchants and producers have stopped selling their products, waiting for a better exchange rate, and prefer to keep their funds abroad rather than depositing them in local banks.”

Molina believes Without major changes, the situation is unlikely to improve In terms of economic policy or the central bank significantly increases its dollar reserves.

“Currently, it is estimated that approximately $5 billion in cash will be required. Excluding gold reserves to stabilize the official exchange rate. However, given the trade deficit and current policies, this is not expected to change until at least 2025.”

Economist Jaime Dunn explains that this phenomenon is not due to an increase in the price of the dollar, but rather to The national currency depreciates. He explained that the devaluation of the Bolivian currency is due to the following factors: High public spending, persistent deficits and debt From the country.

“These factors have created this economic situation: Currency devaluationwhich in turn has increased product prices, reflected in inflation which has exceeded 3.8% in the past 12 months,” he assured.

Dunn believes that this devaluation has affected the prices of goods and services. He insists that inflation has been rising steadily since January 2024, reaching 3.84%. “Although inflation is low compared to other countries, it is significant for Bolivia and is affecting the cost of imports, making the basic household basket more expensive,” he said.

Dunn pointed out that currency devaluation has a direct impact on the population, as those who own US dollars automatically become 47% richer compared to those who own Bolivian bolivianos. CIncentivize people to hold US dollars rather than the local currency, exacerbating the depreciation.

To reverse this situation, Dunn suggests that the government must Control public spending and reduce corruptionFor citizens, it is recommended to invest carefully and consider diversification to prevent loss of currency value.

The central bank was consulted on the situation, but as of press time, the issuer has not responded. At the end of June, BCB President Edwin Rojas said that the exchange rate remained unchanged.

“On the issue of exchange rates, the program has established clearly defined exchange rates for many years and there are no plans to change them. We have not even considered making any type of modification,” he assured.

The exchange rate has remained at 6.96 pesos and 6.86 pesos since 2011. The last exchange rate change was on November 2, 2011, when the national currency appreciated to 6.97 pesos and 6.96 pesos. Bs are 6.87 to 6.86 for every $1 purchased.