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How will leaders respond to Pacific Islands Forum summit in Tonga?
The tiny capital will carry a huge regional agenda.
Mihaly Sora
SYDNEY/NUKUALofA (DEVPOLICY.ORG) – Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka told the Pacific Security Conference in Suva in June that the Pacific region is facing “multiple crises”.
Growing threats such as climate change, transnational crime, intense geopolitical competition, severe debt and economic distress are exacerbating regional human security pressures such as mental health, non-communicable diseases, collapsing health systems and declining education outcomes.
Against this backdrop, Pacific Island leaders will gather in Tonga next week for the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting. The agenda will cover a range of security, political and economic issues, from climate change to regional policing initiatives to New Caledonia, on which countries are expected to take action.
Attention is now focused on whether Europe and the Gulf states can deliver on their promises.
Tonga expects more than 1,000 people to attend the conference, including delegations from the 18 Pacific Islands Forum member countries, 21 dialogue partner countries, numerous observers, private sector representatives, civil society groups and regional organizations. That’s a lot of dignitaries for Tonga’s capital, Nuku’alofa, population about 23,000. Many will be trying to push for the issues they consider most important.
Climate Change and Disaster Resilience
Climate change remains a top security concern for the region. Leaders will want to push for the establishment and financing of the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), the first “Pacific owned and led” regional financial institution to build resilience to climate change and natural disasters. Leaders will be asked to support a proposal by Forum Economic Ministers to host the fund in Tonga.
This is the easy part.
The PRF aims to raise $500 million by 2026. So far, Australia has pledged $100 million. Saudi Arabia, the United States, China and Turkey have also pledged $16 million, bringing the total to $116 million. It’s not enough.
As host, Tonga hopes the presence of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who has been sounding the global climate alarm and has pledged to host a round of fundraising events for the facility in New York, will spur international partners to make or increase contributions.
New Caledonia
The conflict in New Caledonia is a concern for everyone in the region. Protests related to long-standing grievances over independence broke out in the French territory on May 13, quickly turning into civil unrest, resulting in loss of life and massive property damage in the capital, Noumea.
Paris’ handling of the situation, particularly its questioning of the political future of New Caledonia and the results of a series of independence referendums, has been widely criticized by civil society in the region. New Caledonia’s independence movement has inspired deep sympathy for self-determination among the peoples of the Pacific, many of whom have gained independence only in recent decades.
But Pacific leaders themselves have been more cautious, adhering to the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs rather than focusing on colonial issues, and their remarks have mostly been limited to calls for an end to the violence.
Leaders will focus on those issues where they believe progress can be made.
On August 10, French President Emmanuel Macron approved a Pacific Islands Forum “fact-finding mission” consisting of three prime ministers from the Cook Islands, Solomon Islands and Fiji to visit New Caledonia and report to Tonga’s leaders. But due to disagreements over the nature and scope of the mission, it is increasingly unlikely that the mission will proceed on schedule.
The issue will be on the agenda in Nuku’alofa, but until all parties involved agree to send a delegation, it is unclear what the Pacific Islands Forum can do. And ultimately, Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meetings are usually limited to making progress on possible issues. New Caledonia is a thorny issue for Pacific Island leaders. Like West Papua, it has been on the “standing agenda” of leaders’ meetings for many years, but it was not discussed at the forum’s ministerial meeting in Suva this month.
Policing and security
Australia will seek approval for a A$400 million ($269 million) Pacific Policing Initiative from Pacific Islands Forum leaders, who are increasingly concerned about rising crime rates in their countries and the establishment of local footholds by transnational drug cartels. The initiative will provide Pacific nations with additional capacity boosts to existing policing programs, as well as extra training and capacity building.
But there are critics. Senior Solomon Islands official Colin Baker criticised the initiative on social media, drawing a rebuke from Fiji’s Rabuka. The proposal has been approved by foreign ministers at a meeting, and incoming forum chair Tonga will seek leaders’ endorsement, subject to further consultations at the national level.
China’s ambition to provide police training to Pacific nations has heightened geopolitical tensions in the region. China’s move runs counter to its “Pacific First” policy of addressing security challenges. Australia hopes this Pacific-led policing initiative will inject some stability into the regional balance of power and add more substance to Pacific Islands Forum statements such as the Pacific Islands Forum Regional Security Declaration.
Reach agreement as much as possible
International interest in the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting has grown as geopolitical competition intensifies in the Pacific. But as prices soar across the region, Pacific islanders are more concerned about high inflation, debt, unemployment, weak social services and other domestic pressures.
The Pacific community is expecting tangible outcomes from the talks. The Pacific Islands Forum as an institution is under pressure to prove it is delivering public benefit.
So leaders will focus on issues where they think progress can be made. Climate change. Economic recovery. Policing. They won’t dwell on issues that might be divisive or sensitive. New Caledonia. West Papua. Deep sea mining. Some will say that shows a lack of ambition. Others will see the approach as pragmatic… PACNEWS
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