The fuel crisis

The national government has not been clear or resolute enough on the thorny issue of aviation fuel restrictions that have affected some airports in the last 48 hours, including the Ernesto Cortizos Airport serving Barranquilla. The announcements, statements and information they have published on social networks to warn of the crisis in advance have not only contradicted each other, but have also caused completely unnecessary and unnecessary confusion.

If the supply was guaranteed, as the two ministers (the Minister of Transport and Mines and the President of Ecopetrol) said in a press conference in Casa de Nariño in the early morning, a message reiterated at the end of the afternoon when they said operations were beginning to normalize, why did the problem spiral out of control, leading to the cancellation of more than a hundred flights, affecting hundreds of passengers (many of them foreigners) and causing anxiety throughout the aviation community?

It is clear that there were short circuits or cracks in the management of this situation, which, no matter how you look at it, triggered mismanagement that could have been avoided in time. Due to incompetence, incompetence or lack of foresight, we find ourselves in a worst-case scenario that should not have been reached. In the initial assessment of responsibility, the first focus was on Ecopetrol. On August 16, there was an electrical failure at the Cartagena refinery, and the national oil company was aware at the time that the refinery would result in a 5% reduction in aviation fuel deliveries.

When repairing the damage, it is necessary to thoroughly analyze whether the damage is the result of an accident or a lack of maintenance. Does Ecopetrol have a contingency plan to overcome the imminent deficit caused by the suspension of Reficar’s own production?

Its president, Ricardo Roa, says yes, but the fact seems to be that this will not work as expected, according to repeated warnings from suppliers, who finally alerted the International Air Transport Association (IATA) about the critical stock situation. Flights from Bogota, Medellín, Barranquilla or Cartagena were canceled or delayed due to shortages, while those from Valledupar, Leticia, Monteria and Bucaramanga were.

In anticipation of the eventuality, Ecopetrol has imported 100,000 barrels of fuel that will arrive this weekend to meet the 95% legal supply that guarantees operations. But the tip of the iceberg, as we now know, is that the demand for aviation fuel is 37,000 barrels per day, exceeding the national production of 35,000 barrels, and will increase. Then another question arises: will the local supply increase, or in other words, will we have the means to do it, or will it be decided to import fuel to supply the planes that arrive with tourists who come to visit the attractions of the country of beauty?

A sense of self-criticism? None. Instead, the executive chose to act defensively, ordering investigations into Terpel, a major fuel distributor, and airlines that canceled flights, ultimately lifting the restrictions even though they had been authorized before. Amid the chaos, President Petro Petro cited “irregular activities” as the trigger for the crisis, and he also ruled out the consequences of the Reficar incident, but he did not specify the scope of the accusation or provide more information.

There are still many unresolved issues, made worse by a new environment of distrust that is not suitable for a strategic industry like LATAM, and the players in the chain must agree, as LATAM suggests – and preferably debate – to review structural measures to guarantee medium- and long-term jet fuel supplies and clarify its allocation mechanism.

The options are uncontroversial: either import or increase the capacity of the refineries in Cartagena and Barrancabermeja, but we cannot turn tourism into one of the country’s main sources of income without also boosting aviation. A crisis that is delayed will surely not come.