The debate over Australia and New Zealand’s future isn’t all black and white

The Brumbies’ exit has sparked an annual debate about the competition, with calls often made for it to be scrapped entirely and left to Australia and New Zealand to go their own way. Super Rugby is seen as uncompetitive while the domestic game must have a land flowing with milk and honey.

But if you look at this from a historical perspective, there are some surprising results. For example, since 2000, Super Rugby has had nine different champions. In the same period, the New Zealand National Rugby League has only had six champions.

In fact, the three largest unions – Canterbury, Wellington and Auckland – have won 18 of the past 24 elections. In other words, if New Zealand did return to the NPC system, it would likely return to a less competitive union system with resources highly concentrated in the larger provinces.

It’s harder to make this comparison in an Australian context, but if you look at the 2020-2021 Super Rugby Australia League window, both finals were contested by the same two teams, the Reds and the Brumbies, who have been the top two teams ever since and are likely to remain in the top two in 2025.

In fact, if Rugby Australia had stuck with Super Rugby Australia, we’d likely be heading into the fifth year of the Brumbies-Reds grand final and the topic of discussion would be… you guessed it: “How do we make this game more competitive?”

2. So how can Australia win again?

The answer is simply, not easily. But if you look at the actual performances this weekend, if the Brumbies had played well against the Blues, they would have been in the final against a beaten Chiefs team.

They lost some crucial scrums against the Blues that were key to their win over the Highlanders, and once the Aucklanders got going they were hard to stop. But the broader point is that the Brumbies are one step away from reaching a final in Canberra, where they will be hard to beat.