The aftermath of the small Kelantan by-election

Njiri by-election shows volatility on both sides of politics

Murray Hunt

Saturday, August 17^day The Nigiri by-election should have been seen as a minor political exercise. Nigiri is one of the three state seats within the Gua Musang federal seat that was once the seat of Tengku Razaleigh Tengku Mohd Hamzah for 38 years. It was once the heart of Umno territory in Kelantan.

The Negri by-election was held following the disqualification of incumbent MP Mohammad Aziz Abu Naim, who is also the Kuala Besut federal MP (Besar), who pledged to support Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition government in parliament. The Kelantan Parliament Speaker declared the seat vacant on June 19, 2024, necessitating a by-election.

UMNO lost the Ngeri seat in the 2023 Kelantan state election and is hoping to recapture it. UMNO has suffered electoral defeats since the 2022 general election and is desperate for electoral success in the Malay heartland to show that the party still has a support base. The Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which comprises Bersatu and Islam, wiped out much of UMNO’s support base in what many experts have dubbed the “Green Wave”. A victory for UMNO would restore some legitimacy in this context.

The Negri state constituency, located in rural Kelantan, has only 20,259 registered voters. Malay voters make up 84% and Orang Asli make up 16%. In 2023, only 12,351 or 61% of registered voters came out to vote. Mohd Azizi Abu Naim of the Islamic Party received 810 votes, a majority of 6.62%.

Perikatan Nasional nominated former PAS Gua Musang Youth chief Mohd Rizwadi Ismail to run on behalf of Bersatu. Mohd Rizwadi’s defection from PAS two days before nomination day appeared to have angered many Bersatu members. This marginalized the Bersatu candidate. In contrast, Umno candidate Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani is well known among the Nanggiri youth.

Saturday’s voting results showed that Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani received 9,091 votes, overwhelmingly defeating Mohamad Rizwadi who received 5,739 votes. This gave UMNO an unexpected 3,352 votes, making Ngiri a safe seat for UMNO.

Surprisingly, the turnout was 73.88%, much higher than in the 2023 state election. There were unconfirmed reports that Orang Asli were offered gifts and money to support UMNO candidates. There were also reports that Perikatan Nasional supporters were being bribed not to turn out to vote.

BN realised that large-scale lectures or political rallies might draw large crowds (for food and gifts) but would not necessarily bring the same electoral support. Therefore, UMNO resorted to intensive door-to-door campaigning to attract voters. Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki was quoted as saying “Our approach for Mahkota is to personally reach out to every voter and avoid public and large gatherings. Our goal is to connect directly with voters, regardless of race, by knocking on every door.” In the end, UMNO won 17 out of 20 polling stations.

Hallucinations and delusions

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Sunday that Kelantan voters had accepted the Umno government thanks to its victory in Negeri. The coalition is now accepted by the people of Kelantan. Anwar claimed that Umno’s victory was because “There is growing public buy-in to the Madani administration’s wave of change, which is consistent with recent positive economic indicators.”

However, there may be many tactical factors that influenced the election results. The DAP did not contest the election, thus avoiding the problem of UMNO cooperating with the DAP, which is seen as a “Chinese party”.

UMNO has far more resources locally than it did heading into the 2023 state election. Targeting vote-rich areas that are likely to draw support from the region has proven successful. This is especially true within the Orang Asli settlements.

In contrast, the issue of the PN candidate caused a rift in grassroots relations between Bersatu and PAS during the campaign, which could be costly for PN.

The main factors that influenced the results were local issues such as the absence of ATMs in the area, candidates, personal contacts and good old money politics. The national issues that Anwar claimed to care about did not seem to play much of a role in the election.

Some national impacts of the Nenggeri by-election

The outcome of the Nyangiri by-election may also have an impact beyond its own influence.

This result psychologically strengthens the party’s enthusiasm and efforts. Even if the Ngiri by-election used some “smoke and mirrors” to win using traditional money politics, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi now has bragging rights. Zahid was marginalized in the government to prevent him from being better than his boss. This result adds value to Zahid. In addition, the discontent among members within UMNO will be suppressed for the time being.

Zahid will become more confident again

UMNO will now consider contesting the next general election under its own name, thereby fielding candidates in several constituencies to compete with Pakatan Harapan. This is what the grassroots want.

The Negeri by-election exposed some people’s suspicions. There are serious cracks within the National Alliance. There is some dissatisfaction within the PAS leadership towards Bersatu. Is this the beginning of the end for the National Alliance? It is too early to tell. However, PAS may become more confident and now act more in its own interests.

What was Hardy thinking?

Ngili said that both parties, PAS and UMNO, are reconsidering their future trajectories. Ngili is just giving us a glimpse into the matter.