Terrorist groups prepare to fill gap left by U.S. troop withdrawal in Niger

WASHINGTON – The United States this week abandoned a $110 million drone base in Niger, adding to a growing list of Western withdrawals that are steadily ceding territory to terrorist groups linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Niger was once seen as a key hub for counterterrorism efforts.

U.S. Africa Command officials announced Monday that all troops will withdraw from the 201st Air Base in Agadez, completing the withdrawal process that began last year when Niger’s military junta overthrew the elected president and demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

US completes withdrawal from last base in Niger

The U.S. withdrawal follows French troops’ withdrawal from Niger late last year and from neighboring Mali in 2022. Similarly, a five-nation coalition fighting terrorist groups in the Sahel has disintegrated in recent years.

France’s withdrawal from Niger highlights its waning influence

Intelligence gathered by UN member states suggests the terrorist group Western forces hope to contain has taken full advantage of its fading opportunity.

According to a report released last week by the United Nations sanctions monitoring group, the al-Qaeda-linked Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has become “the greatest threat in the Sahel region”.

The report said JNIM commands between 5,000 and 6,000 fighters and “continues to expand, primarily in Burkina Faso but also significantly in Mali and Niger.”

The report warned that while intelligence showed the Islamic State had not given up on striking Western interests in the Sahel, the group’s ability to expand and consolidate territory could allow it to “establish an emirate stretching from central Mali to northern Benin.”

The Islamic State terror group’s affiliate in the region has also made gains.

The UN report warned that the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) was “growing in importance and capabilities” and was working with the core leadership of the Islamic State to establish terrorist cells and networks in Nigeria and beyond.

UN member states estimate ISWAP fighters to number between 4,000 and 7,000. But much of their efforts are focused on supporting the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), of which 2,000 to 3,000 fighters are trying to expand beyond their strongholds in Mali and the border region between Burkina Faso and Niger.

Adding to the danger, the UN report warned, is that a fragile detente (informal agreement) appears to be emerging between the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and ISGS, “with both groups continuing to occupy and control larger areas of contiguous territory in the Sahel.”

Some analysts who cover the region warn that the trend is unlikely to change.

“What we are seeing now is the direct consequences of all the coups in the region and the fact that all the armies have been driven out — the French army, the Belgian army, MINUSMA, the African Union army and the U.S. army,” said Pieter Van Ostaeyen, a Belgian Arabist who studies Islamic extremism.

“It’s like a merry-go-round that never stops, like a downward spiral,” he told VOA.

Van Ostajen said this is evident from the number of attacks claimed or attributed to JNIM and its affiliated groups.

According to his data, these groups carried out an average of 125 attacks per month in the first five months of this year, compared with just over 50 attacks per month in the same period last year.

Van Ostajen saw no signs that any military forces in the region were capable of stopping the spread of violence.

“At the moment, ISIS and JNIM are partially tearing apart Mali and Burkina Faso. Niger will also fall completely into the hands of the jihadists,” he said.

FILE PHOTO – General Abdulrahman Tiyani (second from left), head of Niger’s military regime, greets thousands of people gathered in Niamey to celebrate the first anniversary of his coup d’état that brought him to power on July 26, 2023.

Liam Carr, head of the Africa team at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project in Washington, also believes that the situation is not optimistic.

“In many cases, because of the illegal networks that these terrorist groups have, they are probably wealthier than many of the countries that they are actually targeting,” Carr told VOA.

There are also strong concerns about the role played by official Russian forces and paramilitary units such as the Wagner Group or the newly formed Afrika Korps in countries such as Mali and Niger as Moscow seeks to gain influence.

“We’ve seen Wagner be very, very progressive in trying to control African countries,” Gen. Michael Langley of U.S. Africa Command briefed reporters in June.

“This does not contribute to greater security or stability,” he said.

There are also concerns about Russia’s military presence in Africa, and Western officials have long warned that the main goal of groups like Wagner is to help Russia gain access to natural resources.

Recent events, such as an attack by separatists in northern Mali that reportedly killed more than 80 Wagner mercenaries, have further cast doubt on Russia’s capabilities.

Mali separatists say they killed dozens of Wagner and government fighters

Analysts such as Carr also believe that even if Russia is willing to help fight terrorist organizations, the numbers are not enough.

“The Russian presence there is much smaller,” Carr said. “Especially in a place like Niger, where in terms of numbers, there are about 100 to 200 Russian troops replacing 1,500 French soldiers and over 1,000 American troops.”