Telegram | Digital Process

It was a doctor’s visit, that’s all. They came in, sniffed out the “mood” of the economy and left. They left a brief note noting their visit, but those few words were worth a thousand words.

IMF technicians tend to be like this: punctual, conscientious, and economical in expressing their opinions, but never too economical: “We have had an open and good dialogue, which we hope to continue,” the cable read, before returning to Washington.

The intention to complete the plan signed a year ago, then, seems far away. The country’s course goes beyond what would be good practice for a functioning economy.

This very brief text buried the high hopes that Hondurans had about three years ago that things could finally change. The pain of small business owners who have long been forced to close their businesses because high energy costs do not allow them to compete and implement projects is becoming increasingly apparent.

These twenty words, without a single figure, eloquently demonstrate the need to finance the widening trade deficit with the international reserves of the central banks, because exports are falling, foreign investment is not coming in in large quantities, and the profitability paid by our banks is so unattractive for capital investment that dollars are not flowing in, but fleeing.

Our growing import burden is supported only by the tenacity and perseverance of the hundreds of thousands of young men and women who leave their homeland every year to seek a life in the United States and Europe. If it were not for the remittances they send back home, the dollar would be priced unimaginably high, given the country’s need for foreign goods to function.

The cable also said that the more than $330 million that the government budget had to pay to cover this year’s fiscal gap would not take effect, but it did not mention this. Where will the Ministry of Finance get the money to fulfill the commitments made? It is difficult to know.

One option is to resort to alternative public debt, either internal or external. It is well known that obtaining loans from national banks or pension institutions is a cumbersome task, but given that the choice of international institutions has become difficult, as world interest rates remain high and risk premiums in countries such as Honduras are not helping, domestic debt seems to be the only option.

Another option is to spend less. Cut spending. It sounds easy, but at this time of year the Treasury has too many commitments. The executive units have contracts under the current budget.

When the media accuses that at the end of August only 46% of the budget had been implemented on average, they do not take into account that more than 90% has been spent on wages and salaries items, that is, more than 90% has not yet allocated 1.4 billion lempiras for the primary elections and the acquisition process of the public investment program is underway.

I hope they don’t consider printing inorganic money. This would be the beginning of a disaster, like what Argentina and Venezuela are experiencing. It’s not the first time in history that irresponsible governments choose this easy and difficult solution. Citizens must be vigilant because the IMF seems to have pulled out.

After all! The upcoming political farce seems to once again pose the most important threat to macroeconomic stability. We must remain vigilant if we still hope that this beautiful but poorly managed country will eventually become a prosperous place where no one wants to leave and many people want to come.