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Dutch voters cast ballots on Thursday at the start of a four-day European Parliament election that could shift the balance of power on the continent to the right.
The election will determine how the EU, with 450 million citizens, faces external challenges including a more aggressive Russia, growing industrial competition from China and the United States, climate change and immigration.
The mood in the Netherlands — where nationalist parties are expected to win in 2023 national elections — also reflects the main internal political challenge facing the 27-nation European Union: the growing popularity of nationalist and populist parties that want to dismantle the bloc from within.
“I’m worried about these far-right movements because they are populist movements,” said Sebastiaan Bink (57), a sustainable energy worker who voted in The Hague.
“In the Netherlands we have a party that is very distrustful of the EU and some of these right-wing politicians are trying to undermine European cooperation, which would be very harmful. I don’t like that at all.”
After the Dutch vote on Thursday, Ireland and the Czech Republic will vote on Friday, Malta, Slovakia and Latvia on Saturday, and the rest of the EU on Sunday.
Polls suggest the anti-immigration Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, which won last year’s national election, will make progress, winning eight seats in the European Parliament, similar to a Labour/GroenLinks combination.
Wilders failed to win seats in the last European elections in 2019, although polls show Europe’s centre-right could win the most seats in the EU’s new legislature, with nationalist and populist parties set to make gains.
Wilders, known for his outspoken views on immigration and Islam, said on Thursday that good results for nationalist parties should encourage them to unite in an effort to change EU regulations and return more powers to national legislatures.
However, their influence in the new EU Parliament may be weakened by internal divisions.
The atmosphere is grim
Across much of Europe, the political climate is changing, fueled by divisiveness and populist policy rhetoric. Verbal and physical attacks against politicians in Germany have more than doubled since 2019.
The 720-seat parliament, together with the EU’s 27 national governments, decides on laws governing the bloc’s internal market, its 1 trillion euro ($1.09 trillion) long-term budget, budget rules and laws to prevent climate change.
Exit polls are expected to be taken on Sunday, followed by the first forecasts of the results in the evening.
Surveys of voter intentions suggest the centre-right is likely to win the largest share of seats, putting their candidate for European Commission president, incumbent Ursula von der Leyen of Germany, in the lead and in a good position to win a second term.
One of the biggest losers appears to be the European Green Party, which faces a backlash from families, farmers and industry over the high costs of EU policies to limit carbon emissions.
The new parliament will decide on the EU’s next seven-year budget, which will take effect in 2028, as Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans seek to join the bloc.
If those countries want to join, EU governments and parliaments will have to agree on internal changes to the way the bloc works, including agricultural subsidies and funding to improve living standards across the bloc.
The rules for unanimous voting may also need to be changed to meet the requirements of larger groups.
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