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September is typically a tough month for Apple — and it’s unclear whether this year will be different. Apple is expected to unveil new iPhones and Apple Watches at a press event on Sept. 9 at its Cupertino, California, headquarters. The tech giant typically unveils these new models at a fall event ahead of the holiday shopping season. Apple’s stock price tends to move higher as investor excitement builds ahead of product launches, according to FactSet analysis. But the stock’s lowest average return comes in launch months. Over the past 10 years, Apple’s stock price has fallen an average of 3.5% in September. The pullback follows an average gain of 6.5% in July and an average gain of 4.8% in August, the analysis shows. Apple rose 3.1% in August and is now up nearly 19% so far this year. Morgan Stanley analysts believe Apple’s announcements this year could lead to better stock performance than in history. That’s in part because the upcoming event is likely to focus on the expected Apple Intelligence integration in the iPhone 16 models, which could spur demand for the company’s much-anticipated AI-related advances. “Historically, iPhone launches have been a sell-news event, with Apple slightly underperforming the market on the day of the iPhone launch and only slightly outperforming the market in the three months following the launch,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note Thursday. “We don’t necessarily expect the market to perform differently when Apple launches the iPhone 16 on September 9, but we do see the potential for Apple to outperform historical seasonality at the end of the year as the launch of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence help unleash pent-up demand,” he added. Woodring said that historically, Apple shares have outperformed when the company’s product replacement cycle shortens. In fact, he predicts that the iPhone replacement cycle will shorten by fiscal 2026. Apple remains a “top pick” for Morgan Stanley, and Woodring said he remains bullish on the tech company’s opportunity to drive multi-year product cycle updates and accelerate iPhone replacement cycles. He has an overweight rating on the stock with a $273 price target, which implies a potential upside of 19.2% from Friday’s closing price. On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating on the stock with a $190 price target, suggesting the stock could fall 17% over the next year. August is typically the lowest month for consumers to buy iPhone models, he said in a note on Tuesday, adding that there is “risk around a September launch.” Apple’s iPhone accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales in the fiscal third quarter. “If August iPhone sales are around 14 million units, down about 3% month-over-month, consistent with recent seasonality and lack of channel fill, sales on September 24 would have to be 22.6 million units to meet our expectations, up about 20% year-over-year, which we think is a high bar given that Apple Intelligence is still in beta and not yet available in Europe,” the analyst said.
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