Robert Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from 2024 race could help Trump

Arguably the strangest candidate in the 2024 election has effectively ended his presidential campaign.

After a campaign fraught with controversy, including the revelation The bugs ate part of his brain. And he is Responsible for bear carcasses That Mysterious appearance In 2014, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his withdrawal from the presidential race in Central Park, with Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. 10 battleground states His presence could make him a spoiler for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. He said his name will remain on the ballot elsewhere.

He also Support Trump, He reportedly hopes Securing Trump’s position as health secretary If he wins.

Kennedy was an environmental lawyer with a legendary last name Famous for However, in recent years, he has become known for spreading conspiracy theories about medicine, including vaccine and AntidepressantsHe used himself as Anti-vaxxers during the pandemic Before announcing his independent run for president in October 2023, he briefly challenged President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary.

He is seen as a potential spoiler for both candidates, given his ties to the Democratic Party’s Kennedy dynasty and his espionage of the anti-establishment and anti-vaccine views of some factions of the Republican Party. Polls show that about 10% That percentage has been high nationwide for much of 2024, and even higher in some battleground state polls.

But he Voting is difficult in many statesthough his campaign insists he has enough signatures in all but Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Wyoming. He appears to have less influence among voters who are turned off by Biden after Harris became the Democratic nominee. His poll numbers Hence the crater Dropped to below 5%.

Even as Kennedy’s approval ratings continue to slide nationwide, polls suggest his exit could still help Trump because he has become Definitely more comfortable Trump, who has led in recent months, doesn’t need to win over large swaths of Kennedy’s potential voters to make an impact in a key swing state; if the race is as close as it was in 2020, even a few percentage points of support from Kennedy could make a difference.

Kennedy’s exit from the race could be Trump’s biggest benefit. Kennedy has become increasingly popular with Republican voters, but he has struggled to gain the same support among Democrats and independents. Polls taken in recent months, including since Biden dropped out of the race, suggest Trump will gain more support from Kennedy. Any advantage is likely to be small — but could be significant.

One study showed that Republicans tend to have more favorable views of Kennedy than Democrats, while people who hold favorable views of Kennedy tend to rate Trump more favorably than they rate Harris. July AP-NORC Chicken It was conducted before Biden withdrew.

Several national polls conducted since Harris became the presumptive nominee have also tested the race between Harris, Trump and Kennedy, as well as the two-way race between Harris and Trump. When Kennedy is excluded, Trump tends to receive a larger share of support than Harris.

In one August Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered votersFor example, Harris received 42% support, Trump received 37%, Kennedy received 4%, and 15% supported the other candidate, were unsure who they would support, or were unsure if they would vote. But when voters were forced to choose Trump or Harris, 49% supported Harris and 47% supported Trump – a 10-point increase in Trump’s support.

Trump has a similar advantage among Kennedy voters July Harvard CAPS/Harris PollIn the three-way race, Harris received 44 percent, Trump received 47 percent and Kennedy received 10 percent. In the head-to-head poll, Harris received 48 percent and Trump received 52 percent.

After Kennedy dropped out, Trump’s advantage seemed relatively small. But Biden won by a landslide in 2020 Narrow profit margins Kennedy leads in six key battleground states and in Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes. Kennedy’s supporters could have an impact, depending on where they are located.

In Arizona, for example, Kennedy’s approval rating is around 6%. Hill’s poll averageOf course, he might not actually win that many votes if he decides to stay in the race; third-party candidates tend to poll much better than they actually do on Election Day, when their supporters are faced with the reality that their preferred candidate won’t win. But that vote share was enough to tip the 2020 results in the other direction.

The same is true in other battleground states, where polls show a tight race. August New York Times/Siena The survey of registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found that Harris led Trump 46% to 43% when respondents were asked to choose among all third-party candidates. When asked to choose between Harris and Trump, the gap narrowed to 48% to 46%. States may be keyGiven their high Electoral College vote count—and in most cases, Harris needs all three to win.

While Kennedy supporters may still be able to have significant influence in marginal districts, their power to pull down Democratic candidates in the polls appears to have been greatly diminished.

Before Harris became the nominee, there were many more disaffected voters than usual who disliked neither Biden nor Trump and just wanted someone — anyone — as an alternative. In theory, an unknown candidate as an alternative to Biden and Trump received about 10% support in the 2019 election. Ipsos poll It was conducted earlier this year.

Kennedy briefly offered an alternative. But when Harris took office, his appeal waned — at least among Democrats.

“There are some swing Democratic voters who just think Biden is too old or they don’t like him, and Harris is a more attractive candidate to that group,” said Kyle Kondik, editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Kondik said if Biden continues to run and Typical volatility after the Democratic National Convention.

But as things stand, Kondik said he wouldn’t be surprised if third parties end up getting about 2% of the electorate in elections, as they did in 2012 and 2020. Before Harris became the nominee, political analysts predicted third parties would get closer to 6% in 2016, and some analysts predicted that third parties would get about 6% of the vote in 2020. Doomed to fail Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.

“While there has been a lot of talk about third parties in this election, the withdrawal of the most high-profile third-party candidates, coupled with the rising support for the two major party candidates, means that the market for third-party candidates will shrink,” he said.

Kennedy could have a bigger impact as an alternative to Trump. He could help the former president appeal to certain demographics, such as young people who listen to high-profile speakers like Joe Rogan. Praise for Kennedy.

But the Trump campaign may also be concerned that it is relying too heavily on Kennedy’s brand: If the brainworm and bear incidents weren’t enough, he’s already Members of his own famous family Now selling Conspiracy theories Not only Coronavirus disease Vaccines, however His father’s murderer, 5G mobile phone transmission, 2004 Election Fraudetc.

“What Democrats are saying about Trump and (his running mate) Vance is that they’re ‘weird,'” Kondik said. “Kennedy doesn’t make them any less weird.”

Updated: August 23 at 4 p.m.: This story was originally published on Aug. 22 and has been updated to include Kennedy’s announcement of 10 state withdrawals.