Qatar National Bank: US economic agenda will continue if Harris wins election

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects the current US economic agenda to continue, especially in the areas of finance, regulatory measures and immigration, if Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris wins the US election.
Qatar National Bank (QNB) said in its weekly report that overall, its proposed agenda will have a mixed impact on economic growth, as fiscal and immigration-related policies will enhance economic activity, while tighter regulatory restrictions may weigh on GDP growth.
The report said the U.S. economy is extremely important for achieving long-term domestic prosperity in the United States and ensuring overall global stability, as other economies around the world benefit directly or indirectly from the United States’ extensive infrastructure, markets, deep financial system and strong regulatory framework. With a nominal GDP of $28.8 trillion in 2024 and a global economy of $109.5 trillion, the United States operates on a scale unmatched by any other major economy.
The report states that the candidate who will succeed the incumbent president has an agenda centered around “continuing” the current economic policies known to investors and analysts, with plans focused on social justice, equality, sustainability, and the future sector, aiming to strengthen, deepen, and modernize the traditional platform of the Democratic Party. In other words, Harris supports stricter corporate regulation, more social benefits for the working and middle classes, higher taxes on corporations and high-income households, a more open policy toward immigration, and a more traditional approach to foreign trade.
The report highlights three key points in Harris’ economic agenda, the first of which is that Harris is inclined to pursue a more progressive fiscal policy if elected, that is, a policy that supports income and wealth redistribution, taxes high-income earners more and spends more on low-income families.
Indeed, the Democrats’ proposal to raise the corporate income tax from 21 percent to 28 percent is halfway between the current rate and the higher rate before Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, in contrast to Trump’s proposal to reduce the corporate income tax to 15 percent.
In addition, the report said that if Harris is elected, personal income taxes for people making more than $400,000 a year are also expected to increase, as Democrats appear unwilling to extend temporary tax breaks for such people passed in 2017.
The report added that a Harris presidency would not imply fiscal austerity, as part of her agenda also includes additional spending on health care, social security, infrastructure, achieving the energy transition, and supporting strategic sectors. Taken together, these fiscal measures could lead to an increase in the fiscal deficit, which currently stands at 6.7% of potential GDP. Even if the possible issuance of more government debt leads to higher long-term yields, the overall impact of these measures on economic growth could be positive.
The second point mentioned in the report concerns Harris’s commitment to a stricter regulatory process approach, which further tightens the situation in various sectors. Environmental legislation will be a priority, with a comprehensive climate policy aimed at reducing emissions through stricter industrial and vehicle standards. Harris is likely to relax the permitting process for green energy projects while imposing stricter regulations on the fossil fuel industry.
Antitrust laws will also be more strictly enforced, which could include measures to break up large companies and prevent anti-competitive behavior. Some targeted industries, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, will therefore benefit from these measures, while their overall impact could pose an additional burden on competitiveness.
When talking about the third point, the report mentioned Harris’s position on immigration and its significant impact on the country’s demographic structure and labor market, as Harris has consistently supported immigration law reform, balancing border security with humane treatment of immigrants, and providing a path for long-term illegal immigrants to become naturalized.
The report says this is important because illegal immigrants make up about 4-5% of the U.S. population. In addition, this category is important for providing labor and hourly contracts to the service sector, preventing severe labor market tightness and offsetting demographic trends. In the medium term, this will contribute to moderate growth in average wages and inflation. Favorable demographics will have a positive impact on economic growth.