Population growth slows in the first half of 2024

In the first six months of 2024, 138,000 people came to live in the Netherlands and 92,000 left the country to live elsewhere. Net immigration therefore led to a population increase of 46,000 people. This is 12,000 fewer people than in the same period last year. This is because the number of immigrants fell by more than 11,000, while the number of emigrants increased by almost 1,000.

In the first half of this year, the number of births nationwide was 81,300 and the number of deaths was 88,400. The natural population growth rate (births minus deaths) was negative: a decrease of 72,000 people. In the same period last year, the natural population change decreased by 6,000 people.

Europe sees biggest drop in immigration

Net migration (emigration minus emigration) from European countries was lower in the first half of 2024 than in the same period of 2023. This is partly due to a decrease in the number of refugees arriving in the Netherlands from Ukraine, but also because net migration to almost all other European countries also fell. Net migration from outside Europe also fell in the first half of 2024, especially from Asia.

The majority of immigrants still come from other parts of Europe, but the Netherlands also has the largest number of Europeans leaving it. Overall, in terms of net immigration, the majority of immigrants come from Asia.

The countries of origin that contributed most to net migration in the first half of 2024 were Syria (11,300), Ukraine (66,000), Turkey (45,000), Romania (20,000) and South Africa (16,000). There was a decline in the number of immigrants from India: in the first half of 2022, the number of immigrants from India was 49,000 (net), while in the first half of 2024 this figure was 15,000.

Birth rates are below replacement level for all population groups

In the first half of 2024, nearly 1,000 more babies were born than in the same period last year. The birth rate has been falling steadily since 2010, when it peaked at 4.3 million. Average The average number of children born to women in 2017 is 1.8. In 2023, the average number of children born to women is 1.4.

The average fertility rate for women of Dutch origin is 1.5. Fertility rates are falling for all population groups and are below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This means that without immigration into the Netherlands, the population will decline in the long term. In 2023, women of Moroccan origin will have an average fertility rate of around replacement level, while women of Turkish origin will have an average fertility rate similar to that of Dutch women.

Average fertility rates have also fallen in almost all other European countries and are now below replacement level. Southern European countries have the lowest average fertility rates, ranging from 1.2 in Spain to 1.4 in Portugal (2022 data).