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The U.S. Geological Survey’s PRISM5 project has collected thousands of samples from more than 100 sediment cores containing material that is millions of years old, gathering data on the global distribution of species communities during the Late Pliocene (3.6 million to 2.58 million years ago). This period is important because atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the positions of continents, which control ocean circulation patterns, were similar to today. The climate transition during the Late Pliocene was marked by shifts in latitudinal species communities, and changes in the distribution of heat as sea surface temperatures warmed or cooled. Therefore, it is a useful time window to study and compare how Earth’s oceans are changing today.
But there is one very important use for this species community data, beyond simply understanding changes that occurred in the past. Data from the past can be used to improve climate models to simulate future climate change. In other words, modelers can use “posterior predictions,” where they try to simulate the past to understand how well the model performed and improve its accuracy, before trying to “predict” future climate conditions. Data from the PRISM5 project can help modelers make posterior predictions and then predict ocean surface heat patterns. Climate model simulations will be tested against paleoclimate data collected by the PRISM5 project to see if they can accurately simulate past ocean surface heat patterns and look for differences. Identifying differences is important because it can indicate that key processes are missing from climate models that need to be incorporated to accurately predict future climate change.
Traditionally, data-model comparisons have focused on comparing sea surface temperature values point by point, looking for problems with paleotemperature estimates or model performance. However, focusing on changes in sea surface temperatures between the equator and the poles provides an alternative way to assess spatial temperature patterns that reflect ecosystem patterns. In this way, the PRISM5 project can both understand how ecosystems migrate in a warming world and provide another way to test and improve climate models.
Additionally, USGS scientists are quantifying community data using multiple diversity metrics. Biodiversity richness (the number of different species) is one way to measure the health of marine ecosystems. Biodiverse ecosystems provide food, health benefits, and economic support to coastal economies and are often associated with upwelling zones in the ocean. Understanding where these productive ecosystems will be located in the future is critical to many coastal industries.
Studying the diversity of planktonic foraminiferal species communities is therefore a valuable tool in paleoceanography and paleoecology studies, and is integral to improving future climate model simulations. Tracking past latitudinal species changes can help us predict where ocean circulation and upwelling may change and where species shift, which in turn can have important economic consequences. This information can help guide marine conservation and planning efforts, and help us better understand what changes may come with ongoing ocean climate change.
A recent article from the U.S. Geological Survey Nature Geoscience News & Views headline: “Plankton reveals past climate” Explore this topic further!
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