OBC Ports: Car imports to quadruple by 2084: Cayman News Service

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^{Panelists at Thursday evening’s meeting (LR) included Harold Westerman of Stantec, Christine Adnitt, chief marine scientist at Royal HaskoningDHV, Sam Story of KPMG, Simon Griffiths, PWD project manager, Paul Hurlston, port director and Stran Bodden, chief officer of MOTP. Minister Kenneth Bryan stood}

(CNS): The team of consultants writing the business case for a new cargo terminal on Grand Cayman is making the case based on import forecasts that the number of cars shipped annually to the Cayman Islands will increase two-and-a-half times in 15 years and four-fold in 60 years.

Last week, the Ministry of Tourism and Ports held two public meetings to present the OBC findings. In the first two years of this government, transport was included in the government’s purview, but the ministry made absolutely no progress in implementing a modern, efficient public transport system. Now that transport has been incorporated into the Ministry of Planning, this goal has also not been achieved.

Consultants included representatives from Stantec, the Canadian architecture and engineering firm that designed the port; accounting firm KPMG; Royal HaskoningDHV, a sustainability consultant, engineer and designer; and BCQS, a Cayman Islands-based project management and quantity surveying firm.

Statements made at the public meeting made it clear that the report was prepared on the basis of the construction of a new port and its purpose was to propose various options for the location of the new port.

Based on a forecast of a population growth of 250,000 over the next 50 years, the research team does not appear to take into account improvements in public transport, concluding that by 2084 there will be 20,300 more vehicles arriving each year than in 2023. The report’s terms of reference do not appear to cover whether the island, its roads and infrastructure can cope with such growth.

The construction industry is not slowing down either, according to forecasts. Annual cement imports are expected to jump from 58,000 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes over the next 15 years. By 2084, that figure will reach 157,000 tonnes per year.

Imported aggregates are expected to rise from 357,000 tonnes in 2023 to 540,000 tonnes in 2039. However, if a new cargo port were built by then, up to 1.5 million tonnes could be imported annually, rising to nearly 2 million tonnes by 2084, according to the OBC.

Harold Westman of Stantec, who gave presentations at two public meetings, explained that the only aggregates currently imported were rock and sand used in the production of concrete. No construction fill was imported because the existing port did not have the capacity to handle it. He said there had been “reports” that the island should move to imported aggregates, and that “stakeholders” had told them that quarries “primarily in Breakers” had reached capacity.

Westerman explained two different possible numbers for 2039: “If the port has the capacity to receive construction fill… then the industry will ship construction fill through the port.”

The number of containers arriving in 2023 is 37,200. This number is expected to nearly double in the next 15 years and nearly triple by 2084. However, what the islands will do with all the waste generated by imported goods remains a major issue, as successive governments have been unable to address the major issue of waste management.