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Yangel Bin Laden
The National Centre of Hydrometeorology (NCHM) has predicted slightly above normal rainfall with a chance of extreme weather events during the rest of the monsoon season.
This is according to the latest weather forecast for the season from NCHM.
The forecast is based on data from 1996 to 2023. Average temperatures and rainfall for this period are called “normal.” When numbers deviate from these averages by up to 10%, they are classified as “slightly above normal” or “slightly below normal.”
This year’s forecast indicates slightly above-normal rainfall and temperatures, driven by climate influences such as La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Earlier this year, during the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum, the NCHM had warned of a challenging summer ahead, with increased rainfall and warmer temperatures expected due to ongoing climate drivers.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. La Nina is expected to develop in the following September, October and November, which may intensify rainfall. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral and may continue until November.
Bhutan’s monsoon season usually starts around June 5, but it can vary. This year, while some dzongkhags received rains in the first week of June, the official start of the monsoon is June 12, 2024.
The country received normal rainfall in the first week of June, with rainfall gradually increasing in the following weeks until mid-July. However, rainfall in the last two weeks of July was below the climatic norm.
By the first two weeks of August, rainfall had returned to normal levels. At the start of the monsoon, average temperatures were the same as usual, but from the last week of July to early August, temperatures rose.
There have been several extreme weather events in recent months.
Notable extreme weather events during July and August included flash floods in the Begana Guru Lhakhang stream in Thimphu at 3:05 pm on July 15 and in the Bumthang Lamay Gonpa stream at around 5:00 pm on August 5.
The Dechinpu River again experienced flash floods between 2:30 pm and 3:00 pm on August 10. Heavy rainfall was recorded in Ishna, Paro and Jeddakom districts of Thimphu between 2:30 pm and 3:00 pm on August 17.
Flash floods occurred in Gangtey at 2 pm on August 18 due to heavy rainfall in Bayta Chhu, affecting Beta, Gela and Tokha villages of Gangtey community.
An official from the NCHM said that August and September remain monsoon months in the country, which is prone to landslides, flash floods and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to the country’s geologically young and fragile mountain ecosystems and settlements in river valleys. “Intensive rainfall brought by continuous rains during the monsoon and convective thunderstorms can trigger flash floods, as witnessed in recent events.”
The official said extreme weather events are a potential risk across the country. “While glacier collapse is more common in the higher altitudes of the north, heavy rainfall mainly affects the southern regions. We urge everyone to remain vigilant, stay informed of weather conditions, and take necessary precautions to stay safe.”
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