National’s carbon budget is nonsense « The Standard

It is now clear why Simon Watts rushed out a three-page pamphlet setting out the government’s response to climate change.

He knew the latest climate change emissions reduction plan was coming out for consultation and it looked like National wanted some context to flesh out the Minister’s presentation of that plan.

Otherwise, it’s going to be very bad because National has repeatedly reversed decisions made by the previous Labour government, which had intended to put the country on a path that would at least meet its international obligations to tackle climate change.

The recently released draft confirms this. Basically, at a time when the nation’s efforts to tackle greenhouse gas emissions should be increasing, National is taking us backwards.

This RNZ article The book How to Integrate Artificial Intelligence into Your Life by Eloise Gibson provides a detailed introduction to the nature of artificial intelligence.

from Her articles:

The emissions picture is worse than it was a year ago, partly because the government has yet to announce enough new policies to deal with the long-term impact of abandoning Labor-era climate policies, and developments beyond its control, such as the continued opening of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter.

As things stand, the country is on track to easily meet its first emissions budget (2022-2025) and just barely meet its second emissions budget (2026-2030), though not as easily as it did a year ago.

Based on intermediate assumptions about the economy and other factors, emissions in the third budget (2031-2035) appear to be around 17 million tonnes lower than expected.

One tonne of CO2 is equivalent to nine average journeys from Auckland to Wellington by a petrol car, and the country’s total emissions are currently around 70 million tonnes per year.

The forecasts have wide margins of error, particularly when looking ahead, and are calculated differently to how they were calculated a year ago when Labour’s plans were assessed.

However, a comparative table using the closest available data suggests that, based on policies in place until July 2023, New Zealand is on track to exceed its third emissions budget by a year.

By July 2024, production is expected to be about 17 million tons below budget.

Her analysis of savings is as follows:

• By 2030, the goal is to have 10,000 electric vehicle chargers (saving up to 0.01 tonnes of emissions between 2025 and 2030, and up to 0.2 tonnes of emissions between 2030 and 2035.)
• Put a price on agricultural emissions by 2030 and provide farmers with tools to reduce emissions (100,000 tonnes of emissions reductions between 2025-2030 and 5.5 million tonnes of emissions reductions between 2030-2035). These higher emissions reductions would depend on subsidies for methane reductions from cattle and sheep in the New Zealand market, and the agricultural emissions pricing policy would be implemented five years later than Labour’s proposed policy.
• Research into carbon capture and storage, such as gas companies capturing and storing CO2 in empty oil and gas reservoirs (potentially saving 1.4 million tonnes of emissions in 2025-2030 and 3.2 million tonnes in 2030-2035).
• The Electrify New Zealand policy aims to reduce permitting barriers for renewable energy (reducing emissions by 0.1 million tonnes in 2025-2030 and 1.6 million tonnes in 2030-2035).
• Improve public transport (reducing emissions by 100,000 tonnes between 2025 and 2030 and 300,000 tonnes between 2030 and 2035). This includes investing in projects such as Auckland’s bus lanes. Notes in the document say some of the gains could be offset by increased government spending on roads.
• Invest in resource recovery for processing organic waste through the Waste Minimization Fund to reduce waste emissions (1.3 million tonnes of emissions reduction in 2025-2030 and 1.3 million tonnes of emissions reduction in 2030-2035).
• Improve organic waste and landfill gas capture by expanding requirements for methane gas capture at more landfills (saving 1.1 million tonnes of emissions in 2025-2030 and 1.4 million tonnes in 2030-2035).

Are you impressed? Stage one cuts 4.11 million tonnes of emissions. But 1.4 million tonnes of that relies on unproven carbon capture and storage, and 2.7 million tonnes relies on something that would have probably happened anyway. The rest of National’s contribution is negligible.

Combine it with Savings of 4.8 million tons During the same period, the previous government also reached a deal with the National Party for NZ Steel, which was strongly opposed by the National Party.

The much-derided clean car rebate is It is expected to reduce 1.2 million tons of carbon dioxide per year During this period, production was 7.2 million tonnes.

The plan is totally underwhelming. Apparently if National has its way the country’s emissions will fall.

Eloise Gibson describes This passage:

According to the government’s forecast, New Zealand’s coal production will be 6 million tons below budget in 2022-2030, 2 million tons below budget in 2026-2030, but 17 million tons below budget in 2027-2030. Exceed The budget for 2031 to 2035 is much worse than forecast for the same period a year ago. The shift is partly due to accounting changes and a different methodology, but partly the result of changes in Coalition policy.

The comparison table in the document shows that under the government’s new policy, emissions in 2022-2025 will be 11 million tons higher than they were a year ago when the Labor Party was in power. Emissions in 2026-2030 will be 19 million tons higher than they were a year ago when the Labor Party was in power, but will likely still be under budget. Emissions in 2030-2035 will be 24 million tons higher than they were a year ago when the Labor Party was in power, 17 million tons over budget.

I am cautiously proud of the Labour Party for having worked hard to address this issue and put the country on the right path. While more needs to be done, the country is heading in the right direction. It is clear that this government will undo all the gains made if it is allowed to do so. And it is relying on untested technology to do most of the heavy lifting.

The costs will be huge. If emissions cuts are not strong enough, New Zealand will have to buy carbon credits. At $50 per tonne of carbon emissions in phase three, the plan projects, the government will have to pay $850 million. And it could get worse, much worse.

That’s why the New Zealand steel deal is so successful. $16.20 per tonne to reduce emissions at New Zealand Steel.

The following are the comments on the draft plan: Now open It ends on August 21, 2024.

Seize the opportunity to comment. Tell the government that its draft is totally unsatisfactory and very dangerous because it relies on unproven technology. Beg the government to restore some of the policies of the previous government, which this government has been only too happy to overturn.

It’s a call for our children and grandchildren to take climate change seriously and recognize what needs to change if we don’t want the planet to warm.

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