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Rio de Janeiro— A change in tone by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the face of the Venezuelan crisis has made Brazil’s mediating role difficult, with analysts seeing it as a reflection of a progressive leader caught at a crossroads in wanting to balance the interests of his country and his party.
Lula’s rhetoric hardened in the face of the results of Venezuela’s presidential election, which President Nicolas Maduro won, according to the National Electoral Council, despite opposition voices that they were a “fraud.”
After describing the electoral process as “normal”, Brazil’s president now says Maduro “knows he owes everyone an explanation” for not releasing the election records.
“This ambiguity, this confusion (in the discourse) does not make any sense,” Sérgio Praça, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s School of Social Sciences, told EFE.
The political science PhD noted that the mistakes were not only in the speech, but also in the proposals the Brazilian president put forward this week in an interview with local media to ease the post-election crisis in Venezuela.
Lula has suggested holding new elections – a suggestion rejected by Maduro and the opposition – or forming a coalition government made up of Chavista and opposition members.
“This is even worse because this is a dictatorship, and when do dictatorships share power?” the analyst said.
Weakening Brazil’s mediation role
Lula’s shift in stance shows his estrangement from Maduro, who he received a warm welcome at the Planalto presidential palace last year when he publicly defended his presidency.
Lula himself admitted on Thursday that relations between the two had “deteriorated” due to the “deteriorating political situation in Venezuela,” and revealed that he had not spoken to Maduro since before the election.
A day later, Lula went further in his statement, describing the Caribbean country’s government as “a very unpleasant regime with dictatorial tendencies.”
The words make mediation more difficult in Brazil, which is among the countries that have chosen not to recognize any candidate as the winner of the election before the minutes are officially released.
Since the July 28 election, Lula has been trying to broker some kind of mediation with Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Mexican President Manuel Andres López Obrador, but the latter has distanced himself from the process in recent days.
“No one can resolve this diplomatically,” Plaza commented.
Lula’s political crossroads
The expert believes that Lula received “very bad” advice in a “very difficult” situation, which could lead to a diplomatic crisis with Venezuela or political consequences for the Brazilian president.
“If he does not accept Maduro’s so-called victory, but accepts the victory of the opposition – and the opposition is the real winner – it will provoke a diplomatic crisis with Venezuela and an internal crisis in his party,” he stressed.
A day after the election, the Workers’ Party, Latin America’s largest left-wing party led by Brazil’s president, described the election as “democratic and sovereign” and said Maduro had been “re-elected” president.
Plaza said that although Lula said in a radio interview on Friday that he “disagreed” with what the PT leadership was saying at the time, the decision he made could have “terrible” political and diplomatic consequences for him.
The expert insists that the Brazilian president has received bad advice, especially from former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, a longtime diplomat and close friend of Lula who enjoys a good reputation among Latin American left-wing leaders. EFE/ir
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