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Chief Economist Weekly Update – Macro strong, but Larry still shows slight upward trend consolidation
2024-06-10 16:13:44
Net foreign exchange inflows deteriorated in January compared to the previous month, but remained at a high level. It is worth noting that after the decline in recent months, the migration rate improved slightly, taking into account seasonal factors, and ferroalloy exports also rebounded. However, imports strengthened at the expense of various categories, indicating stronger economic activity. Against this background, the employment rate also improved. In particular, according to Saxstat, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate fell from 16.1% to 15.3% compared with the same period last year, and the number of employed people increased by 67,500 to 1.37 million, although immigration is only partially taken into account.
In the foreign exchange market, sentiment is still improving, which is reflected in the currency composition of deposits. It is also worth noting that the National Bank of Georgia resumed net foreign exchange purchases in December-January, although the scale is not large. However, in terms of the Lari exchange rate, it is still worth noting that the Lari is still slightly stronger than its long-term trend.
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