Iran hints at major nuclear enrichment boost at key nuclear facility

Iran also revealed plans to expand production at its main uranium enrichment plant near the city of Natanz. Both moves are sure to heighten tensions with Western governments and raise concerns about Tehran’s Rapidly moving towards becoming a nuclear powerIt could quickly build a nuclear bomb if its leaders decided to.

At Fordow alone, the expansion project would allow Iran to accumulate nuclear fuel for several nuclear bombs per month, according to one report. technical analysis Courtesy of The Washington Post. Although the Fordow nuclear facility is the smaller of Iran’s two uranium enrichment facilities, it is considered particularly important because it is underground and virtually unaffected by airstrikes.

It is also symbolic because Fordow has completely stopped producing enriched uranium under the landmark deal. 2015 Iran Nuclear DealIran resumed nuclear fuel production soon after Trump administration’s withdrawal Unilateral withdrawal Violation of the 2018 agreement.

Iran already has Approximately 300 pounds of highly enriched uranium stockpile It can be further refined into U.S. BroadCast Unitedligence officials say Iran is within weeks or even days of producing weapons-grade fuel for a nuclear bomb. Iran is also believed to have accumulated Most technical knowledge It might take only two years to build a simple nuclear device, but it might take another two years to build a nuclear warhead that could fit on a missile, according to BroadCast Unitedligence officials and weapons experts.

Iran says it has no plans to build nuclear weapons. But the country’s nuclear program has undergone a surprising shift in leadership. Start to declare publicly Their scientists now have all the parts and skills to build a nuclear bomb, and they can quickly build one if ordered. Over the past two years, Ford has begun stockpiling A highly enriched uranium It is close to weapons grade and much purer than the low-enriched fuel commonly used in nuclear power plants.

While Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has been growing steadily since 2018, the planned expansion, once fully completed, would mean a leap forward in Iran’s ability to produce fissile fuel for nuclear power plants and, after further refinement, nuclear weapons.

Iran’s atomic energy ministry said in a private email to the IAEA early last week that Fordow will be equipped with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used to enrich uranium, according to two European diplomats familiar with the report. The new equipment, built in Iran and networked in eight modules called cascades, will be installed in four weeks. A leaked draft of Iran’s plan initially According to Reuters.

The Biden administration has sounded the alarm about Iran’s expansion plans.

“Iran is attempting to continue to expand its nuclear program in ways that do not credibly support peaceful purposes,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Thursday. “These planned actions further undermine Iran’s anti-nuclear credentials. If Iran implements these plans, we will respond accordingly.”

While the IAEA has known about Iran’s plans to increase enriched uranium production, the size of the planned increase caught many analysts by surprise. If fully implemented, the Fordow expansion would double the number of centrifuges at the underground facility in about a month. The Natanz increase would be smaller, but still significant.

Diplomats with knowledge of confidential IAEA documents said Iran’s expansion plans also call for installing More capable Most of Iran’s enriched uranium production is currently done by these machines. The Fordow nuclear power plant has reportedly only installed the newer IR-6 centrifuges, which are a significant upgrade from the IR-1 centrifuges currently in use.

The 1,400 advanced machines will increase the Fordow nuclear power plant’s production capacity by 360 percent, according to a technical analysis provided to The Washington Post by David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the American Nuclear Energy Association. Institute for Science and International Security, A nonprofit organization in Washington.

Albright said Fordow’s IR-6 reactor could produce about 320 pounds of weapons-grade uranium within a month of full operation. Conservatively, that’s enough for five nuclear bombs. Within two months, the total stockpile could climb to nearly 500 pounds, Albright added.

“Iran will gain the ability to rapidly break out of deeply buried facilities, a capability it has never had before,” Albright wrote in an email.

Iran’s Natanz expansion plan calls for adding thousands more centrifuges of a different model, the IR-2M. Albright calculated that the Natanz plant’s overall production capacity would increase by 35 percent.

Iran has limited the ability of IAEA inspectors to monitor the country’s production of advanced centrifuges since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal. But IAEA inspectors visited Fordow last Tuesday and saw technicians begin installing an IR-6 machine, according to a confidential IAEA summary shared with member states.

“It’s completely credible,” Albright said of Iran’s expansion plans. “We don’t know what they’re doing with the centrifuges. We won’t fully understand their capabilities until they have the machines installed.”

In IAEA member states Approval of formal censure On June 5, the IAEA Board of Governors issued a resolution criticizing Iran’s nuclear defiance. The resolution stated that “Iran has failed to provide the necessary, full and unequivocal cooperation to the IAEA’s monitoring teams.” Iranian officials quickly hit back, with an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing in a statement that Iran would “fail to cooperate with the IAEA’s monitoring teams.” Social Media Posts Tehran “will not succumb to pressure”.

A spokesman for Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations said Tehran strictly complied with the rules for notifying the nuclear watchdog of its plans. The spokesman confirmed that the decision was directly related to the June 5 condemnation by IAEA member states.

“In response to this unnecessary, unwise and hasty board resolution, Iran has formally notified the IAEA of its decision,” the spokesman said in an email.

While the 2015 nuclear deal is technically still in effect, Iran has systematically flouted every major provision of the accord since the Trump administration withdrew from it. The deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was negotiated by the United States and five other world powers, plus the European Union, during President Barack Obama’s term.

The deal was condemned by the Israeli government and criticized by many members of Congress (both Republicans and Democrats) for its apparent flaws — particularly its “sunset” clause, which allows several key restrictions to expire in 2031, just 15 years after the deal came into effect. However, Iran had been It seems to basically comply The deal severely limited Iran’s ability to produce or stockpile enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

Iran has shown little interest in reviving or improving the deal since 2018. The Biden White House has taken a series of actions to restart negotiations. In the early days of the government, Basically abandoned the projectInstead, it focuses on military strikes against Iranian-backed militias, combined with quiet diplomacy to prevent Iran from crossing its nuclear red lines.

U.S. analysts say that despite Iran’s increasing provocative behavior, it currently does not seem willing to risk a U.S. or Israeli military strike by actually developing and testing nuclear weapons.

“We have seen no indication that Iran is currently conducting the critical activities needed to produce a testable nuclear device. We do not believe Iran’s supreme leader has decided to resume a nuclear weapons program, which we believe Iran suspended or halted in late 2003,” said a U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under government rules for discussing the matter. “Nevertheless, we remain deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear activities and continue to monitor them closely.”

Tehran’s efforts to portray itself as a threshold nuclear power allow it a degree of ambiguity that suits its purposes, Robert Litvak said. Author of many books He is also an expert on Iran’s nuclear proliferation and senior vice president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington think tank.

“Iran’s nuclear program is both a deterrent and a bargaining chip,” Litvak said. He said that while Iran’s plans to expand its nuclear program are more evidence of “overstepping the boundaries,” they also strengthen Tehran’s power if the Iranian regime believes it is in its interest to return to the negotiating table.

“Iran’s nuclear intentions should be viewed through the lens of regime survival,” Litvak said. At least for now, “the existential threat facing Iran will not force the regime to cross the line into overt weaponization.”

Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.