Iran and its agents… The complexity of revenge – Bashir Abdel Fattah

On April 13, thirteen days after Israel attacked its consulate in Damascus, Iran retaliated with a series of drone and missile strikes deep into Israel launched for the first time from bases and platforms in Iran, Syria and Iraq.
There are Israeli estimates that Iran’s response to Tehran’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh earlier this month is expected to be stronger than the retaliation last April. The Israelis are worried about a coordinated, simultaneous, complex, multi-front attack.
It originates from Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. It uses drones, missiles and guided missiles. It focuses on military and intelligence facilities in northern and central Israel from Haifa to Tel Aviv, which can cause damage to infrastructure such as power plants, fuel depots and gas wells. The southern Lebanese front remains the most dangerous due to its extremely close geopolitical proximity to Israeli territory, especially because Hezbollah has a large number of guided missiles, guided missiles and drones, some of which are precision-guided. This poses a strategic challenge to Israel’s multi-layered air defense system. If an overreaction by Iran and its allies results in massive destruction and casualties, Israel will respond harshly deep in Iran, Lebanon and other sources of bombing.
Although intelligence assessments confirm that Iran and Hezbollah are not interested in a full-scale regional war, everyone is concerned that a retaliatory response by Iran and its proxies on the one hand and Israel and its allies on the other to establish an equation of mutual deterrence and balance of power will lead to an uncontainable regional escalation.
On the other hand, there are many signs that the expected response from Iran and Hezbollah may be just a show. Iran, for its part, faces international and regional pressure to abandon its countermeasures or reduce their intensity. Although Tehran insists on its right to deter Israel, which has been targeting its military positions in Syria and launching attacks inside Iran, it reiterates its intention to avoid escalating tensions and emphasizes that the response will be proportionate, sensible, precise, qualitative and consistent. In line with international law, it will not provoke a regional war. Or it gives Israel an excuse to launch a tougher response or urge its allies to harass the Iranians.
While Iran needs the involvement of its agents, or what the Yediot newspaper calls a “ring of fire”, to bolster a possible response in order to bring both authenticity and proxy, firing thousands of shells at Israel simultaneously would disrupt its defenses and reduce its ability to intercept these projectiles. As of this article’s publication, there does not appear to be an agreement on this between Tehran and these agents.
As for Hezbollah, whose actions against Israel since October 7 last year have been limited to the so-called Gaza Support Front and in accordance with the rules of engagement established since the 2006 war, it now seems controversial that it needs to take deterrent retaliatory actions. The second speech of its secretary-general on the 6th of this month contained signs of hesitation. He considered a delayed reaction as part of the retaliation. He no longer emphasized the destruction of Israel, but was content to plead for the denial of Israel’s victory. After singing the praises of the decisive battle of the resistance axis according to the unified strategy of the battlefield, he hinted at a calm response, which could be carried out by the axis alone or with the participation of the Axis. This implies a lack of consensus within the latter, or the avoidance of the involvement of Syria and Iran. Despite the gradual decline of the party, which gambled on a full-scale war with Israel, Tehran is proud of its military arsenal, as long as its regime and nuclear program remain free from direct threats.
Israel is preparing for possible responses in various ways, the most prominent of which is strategic preparation: in addition to 1 million shelters (which can accommodate 6 million of the 9 million Israelis), it has prepared more collective shelters and food boxes. Netanyahu reviewed his preparations to repel the expected attack with the support of the United States for his defense systems, which he considers the best in the world, such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrows and Iron Laser Beams. Israeli circles are studying the possibility of launching a preemptive attack against Hezbollah and Iran, with the aim of paralyzing their ability to respond, restoring lost deterrence and avenging the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. A public opinion poll conducted by the 103 FM radio station showed that 48% of Israelis support their army to launch such an attack.
Warning Iran and its allies against violent responses. The Netanyahu government confirmed that its response to Hezbollah attacks against Israeli civilians, even if mistaken, would be “disproportionate” or “disproportionate”. It warned that its response to any attack by Hezbollah or Iran would depend on the amount of damage it causes, not on its scope or size, and that the attack was expected to be stronger than last April’s retaliation because it would include multiple targets and affect important facilities.
Capitalizing on global anxieties: In addition to betting on the shaky consensus between Tehran and its proxies, and the impossibility of consensus within the Iranian government on the nature of the expected response, Israel is counting on the effectiveness of international pressure on Tehran and its weapons to force them to withdraw from the response, reduce its intensity, or refrain from targeting Israeli civilians.
For its part, Washington is concerned that the escalation of confrontation in the region will have international and regional repercussions. In addition to the Biden administration’s desire to avoid a regional war, this also has a negative impact on the Democratic Party’s troubled electoral status. In an environment of geopolitical turmoil, Americans are worried about their own interests and military status. In particular, the Iraqi “Ain al-Assad” base where the US-led international coalition is stationed was attacked on the 5th of this month, the third attack in a month, the attackers were Iraqi militias supported by the United States. Iran, and resulted in seven American soldiers injured. Against the backdrop of curbing tensions and preventing the escalation of the situation, Washington is moving along parallel paths, the most important of which is: increasing support for Israel: in addition to providing Israel with $350 million in emergency weapons assistance, the United States has since deployed more warships loaded with ballistic missiles and advanced fighter jets in the region to support Israel. Although consultations between Israeli and US military officials have not stopped, General Michael Correira, commander of the US Central Command, has visited Israel twice in the past few days to coordinate responses to expected attacks by the Iranian axis.
Preventing Israel from launching a preemptive strike: While Netanyahu insists on continuing his crimes in Gaza, Israeli circles are calling for a preemptive strike against Iran and Hezbollah while targeting resistance leaders. But Washington forbids them to do so in order to avoid a regional war. The Netanyahu government’s compliance with US directives demonstrates its confidence and that of its supporters in the likely proportional response of Iran and its agents.
Taming Iran: Biden has consistently expressed the hope that Iran will not respond, or will respond in a less forceful manner. He has sent messages of encouragement and intimidation to Tehran, both directly and through official channels. To intimidate it, he has warned it that escalation is not in its interest because it will lead to a painful response from Israel and will have dire consequences for its exhausted economy and messed-up system. To encourage her, Biden has hinted to Iranian President Pezeshkian that his efforts to improve Iran’s relations with the West could bear fruit if he shows restraint in the current crisis.
A deal to calm the situation in Gaza: The US Secretary of State called on all parties to the conflict in the Middle East to approve a ceasefire in Gaza and “break the cycle of violence,” which would pave the way for a more sustainable calm in the region. In order to ensure the success of efforts to undermine Iran’s response, Netanyahu responded to the request of the United States, Egypt and Qatar to send a delegation to the armistice negotiations that will resume in the middle of this month. But Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed to French President Macron by phone that preventing the escalation of the situation in the region starts with Washington and its allies stopping their support for Israel and forcing it to stop its aggression in Gaza. Its refusal to separate its support for the calm efforts in Gaza from its insistence on revenge will not undermine these efforts.