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National Bureau of Statistics and Census (Industrial Design Center) will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.It is expected to slow down compared to June, by about 4%, before resuming its downward path. Sixth month rebound This year’s.
After completing the five-month slowdown process through registration In June, the growth rate was 4.6%, an increase of 4.2% from the previous month.the inflation index will again show a slowdown in the pace of price increases in July.
In this sense, the government’s expectations are more ambitious than private estimates. Louis CaputoI believe this number is probably closer to 3% than 4%. Different calculations by private consultants give approximate values. On Wednesday, August 14, INDEC will publish the official figures.
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Central bank and private consultancy calculations: 3.5% to 4.5%
Market Expectations Survey (REM)which elaborates on Central Bank According to private estimates, The inflation rate in July was calculated to be 3.9%. Prices are expected to rise 127.4% for the whole year, down 10.7 percentage points from the forecast last month.
Official indicators last Thursday Inflation in Buenos Airesoften seen as a precursor to national data, showing July growth: 5.1% The cumulative increase in the last 12 months is 264.9%. This data reflects a behavior opposite to what would be expected from a national measurement, as it represents an acceleration compared to the 4.8% recorded in June. So far this year, the price change in the Buenos Aires region is 98.5%.
Private surveys predict lower price growth, ranging between 3.5% and 4.5%. consultant balance The published data showed that the inflation rate was 3.5% in July, up 261% year-on-year, and reached 86% in the first seven months of this year.
The report states that “Among them, non-seasonal food and beverages rose 2.5% (driven by the 2% “crawling peg”), while the remaining components grew by around 4%, partly due to the increase in the CCL exchange rate in July (+3.6% m/m), which affected imported goods.
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this Liberty and Progress FoundationOn its own, the CPI shows July growth: 3.8%with a cumulative growth of 86.7% in the first half of the year and core inflation at around 3.5%. Aldo Abram, director of the entity, said: “The trend of slowing inflation is clear. If the currency devaluations that occurred in May and June continue to reverse, we may see some months beginning with 2“It will depend on how and when arrears in regulated prices and public service rates are corrected.”
Report Ecological Light It noted that inflation “after accelerating in June, fell again due to the impact of controlled inflation and recorded Growth in July was 4.1%, and it is expected to return to the downward channelFor the year-over-year cost of living, the consultancy put it at 272.7%. In addition, it noted that “the monthly core inflation rate was 3.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. This measurement, which excludes regulated and seasonal items, brought the year-over-year growth rate to 268.2%. “
consultant Digital TechnologyAs such, it reflects the IPC’s The Greater Buenos Aires region saw a 4.4% monthly increase in Julydown from 4.9% in the June survey. Meanwhile, core inflation was 2.7%, slightly higher than 2.6% in June. “The gap between the two measures reflects the strong influence of seasonal factors on the aggregate measure,” he noted. Affected by low temperatures, fruits and vegetables rose strongly at the beginning of the month This affected the fruit and vegetable sector in Buenos Aires. “As a result, food and beverage prices increased by 4.2% this month,” he pointed out.
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