India election results 2024: Narendra Modi loses majority, here’s what you need to know

If a fundamental criterion for whether a country is still a democracy is whether the ruling party still suffers electoral setbacks, India passed that test on Tuesday. Results from India’s parliamentary elections, the world’s largest, showed a stunning electoral setback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

To be clear, “setback” is a relative term here. Modi will become only the second Indian prime minister to win three consecutive terms after the six-week election. As of this writing, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Won He won 289 of the 543 seats in parliament, and was ahead by one seat. A majority requires 272 seats.

The BJP itself won 240 seats. That’s more than any other party in India has ever won. Between 1984 and 2009This would have been a surprising result at the start of Modi’s presidency, and in most elections. But the expectations game is real, and Modi and his party lost.

During the campaign, the NDA made it clear that it wanted to win 400 seats: An absolute majority that would have allowed them to push through major legislation and constitutional reforms. They did not come close. Absolute majority After winning the last election on its own, the BJP may now have to rely on smaller alliance partners in the National Democratic Alliance to form a government.

Weekend exit polls That’s totally wrong.most people incorrectly predicted that Modi would win 350 seats. (One of the strangest moments in media coverage on Tuesday was a prominent pollster Tears streaming down my face Being berated on Indian TV for his incorrect predictions and being consoled by other panelists on camera. You are unlikely to see anything like this from Frank Luntz.)

The opposition Congress party seems to be heading for political decline recently under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. The much-ridiculed fourth-generation heir India’s most prominent political dynasty appears on track to double its vote share from the last election.

It’s too early to say it’s the end or the beginning of the end for Modi and the BJP, but they are facing something they haven’t faced in a long time: meaningful opposition and uncertainty. And the world’s largest electorate has shown it is still capable of surprises and independence.

So what went wrong with Modi? For a country of 1.4 billion people, there could be many reasons, and it’s too early to draw conclusions. But the growing consensus seems to be that India’s economic and wallet problems A priority for many voters Oppose the BJP’s avowed religious and ideological project.

Although India’s GDP and infrastructure investment grew rapidly during Modi’s administration, Unemployment remains high In many parts of the country, Stagnant wage growth.

The ruling party’s biggest loss Arriving in Uttar PradeshThe most symbolic seat lost could be India’s most populous state and a longtime BJP bastion. AyodhyaEarlier this year, Modi presided over The opening of the Ram Temple, a massive and controversial new Hindu temple The temple was built on the site of a historic mosque that was demolished by Hindu nationalist mobs in 1992.

Zack Beauchamp wrote in Vox earlier this year Describes the temple As a “monument to a unique Hindu vision built on the ruins of one of the world’s pre-eminent secular democracies.” For the BJP, defeat in Ayodhya is almost unthinkable.

But it seems that not everyone agrees with Modi’s ideology. A prescient article published in the Washington Post Last week, Indian journalist Balka Dutt wrote that she interviewed voters across the country and found that religious rhetoric and projects such as the Ram temple were not so prominent as election issues. Even supporters of the BJP tend to focus on economic growth and Modi’s personal qualities rather than sectarian issues.

“When I asked them what changes they wanted him to make, I always heard two answers – a greater focus on jobs and reconciliation. down “Religious talk is nonsense,” Dutt wrote. One Uttar Pradesh farmer told her: “Politics based on religion is worthless… What we want is 24/7 electricity, adequate water for irrigation and opportunities for our children.”

Instead, Modi appears to have stepped up his Hindu nationalist rhetoric in the final weeks of the campaign. Blaming his rivals There was a plan to redistribute Hindu wealth to Muslims. But it doesn’t seem to be working.

For years, critics at home and abroad have been sounding the alarm about the state of political institutions in the world’s largest democracy as Modi’s rule has pursued discriminatory policies against the country’s religious minorities and harassed journalists, non-governmental organizations and opposition politicians. Not only in India but also abroadIndia was downgraded toElectoral despotism“Now classified as the only”Partially freeFreedom House, an American non-governmental organization.

These authoritarian tendencies Full display On election eve, opposition accuses BJP activists and police Harassing opposition candidates to force them to withdraw.

Says Indian voters rejected Modi’s approach. He can still be said to be Most popular leader But the election results at least suggest that he is not immune to the political gravity — inflation, slow growth, polarization, anti-establishment sentiment — that has Dragging down other regional leaders.

Modi will remain the dominant force in Indian politics (and a significant force in global politics) for years to come, but his rise no longer looks as inevitable and invincible as it did a few days ago, and the politics of the world’s largest democracy are looking more democratic.