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Legislative elections have been decidedSome doubts have been lifted following the release of unofficial results that showed that Rajoelina’s supporters would indeed secure a slim absolute majority. The High Constitutional Court, with great leniency, converted the unofficial victories of four independent candidates (Maevatanana, Antsohihy, Vondrozo and Farafangana) into official victories for the power candidate, thus giving IRMAR the minority of votes it was lacking. An absolute majority of 84 out of 163 seats.
In any case, in Madagascar, the question of the absolute majority at the end of the vote is secondary for the National Assembly. Since the beginning of the Third Republic, the high percentage of independents has created the famous variable geometry: many officials elected under this label will greedily suck promises from the arms of the highest bidder, more if there is a connection. Otherwise, how do we explain that Francisque Ravony, with only two CSDDM deputies (including himself), was able to be elected Prime Minister in 1993? How do we explain that the HVM was able to build a parliamentary group in favor of President Rajaonarimampianina in 2019, when the deputies with the largest number of exits from the polling stations were elected under the label of Rajoelina’s MAPAR? How to explain a Motion of censureA vote by 105 deputies against the Nsay government in 2022, only to be extinguished the next day under personal pressure from Rajoelina? In all these anecdotes, we do not know whether the pressure was merely friendly, quite military, or essentially venal.
Therefore, we expect that many recently elected pseudo-independents will join the presidential majority at the first opportunity. Other “independents” (but certainly fewer in number) will join the opposition. For most, this independent label is at best a mask to lure voters before misleading them, and at worst a strategy to raise the stakes. Therefore, we will wait with curiosity for the start of the nomadic movement, or rather, for marketto identify those who will behave like worthy independents and those who will fall into political prostitution.
We also imagine that by investigating the signatories of checks, transfers or deposit payments to candidates from independent elected officials, we can guess at the sponsors and thus the political-economic interests at work behind the question of parliamentary control. Of course, formal or informal transfers from one camp to another always take place behind the scenes. patriotismIn Madagascar, however, we know from experience that this is only a rhetorical justification for anything from the bad guys suppressing democratic demonstrations to the highest blasphemy of a coup d’état by bearing witness to the unnatural union of a marriage between a carp and a rabbit.
And in France…
Because of this, we can only envy the progress of the legislative elections that took place early on Sunday in France, even if we do not belong to the category of legally relevant, that is, Malagasy people living in France and/or holders of the 8 cm of begging. interest or obtained through paternity. The way politics revolves around real social projects, efforts to convince the population based on arguments, and a campaign without the allocation of funds basin Democracy can only leave us with a good impression.
It is noteworthy that this is the first legislative election in France since the constitutional reform in 2000 that established a five-year presidential term, and this election was not held after the presidential election. Obviously, this situation has allowed these legislative elections to escape the overwhelming shadow of the presidential election. What is more, one of the main competing coalitions has not yet designated a candidate for the position of prime minister in advance. This situation means that the communication between the parties cannot focus on the confrontation between national figures, leaving more space for ideas and suggestions. afterwardswe can wonder whether Emmanuel Macron would have found himself in his current situation if he knew more about what message France sent him in 2002 when it gave him only a relative majority.
That being said, we would not want to be in the predicament of the French electorate, faced with three ultimately rather unattractive options: a liberal technocracy that has shown its limitations and divergent developments; a party that, despite being demonized on the surface, remains racist and xenophobic, and whose economic program seems rather vague; and a motley group of leftists whose economic ideas remain worryingly viable, despite the support of prominent economists such as Thomas Piketty, Julia Cagé and even Nobel laureate Esther Duflot.
It is undeniable that the exacerbation of certain problems in France favours the search for solutions proposed by one or the other of the two current extremes. However, whatever the view on these options, the fact remains that the campaign for the French legislative elections has put the debate of ideas at the forefront, even if the period after July 7 could give rise to real and greater concerns in terms of instability. In a country like France, how would the streets react if one extreme or the other clearly triumphed?
Objectively speaking, France is paying the price today, on the one hand, as a result of past colonial policies and, in the long run, as a result of immigrants attracted by the light of the new “motherland”. On the other hand, we believe that decades of lax or poorly implemented policies under the pretext of human rights have reduced the effectiveness of the rule of law.
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