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Janusz
Bugajski
project
February 19, 2024 – 14:38
Under President Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia is desperately trying to emulate Russia. It seeks to become the dominant power in the Western Balkans and is replicating Putin’s “Russian World” ideology to forge a smaller “Serbian World.” But Belgrade faces a dual problem: its expansionist agenda will be resisted by all its neighbors and international institutions, while the quest for “greatness” will make Serbia increasingly dependent on Moscow’s calculations.
In its “Russki mir” (Russian world) agenda, the Kremlin has declared an obligation to protect all Russian speakers or those born in the Soviet Union and their descendants. This includes the right to intervene in the affairs of neighboring countries, and even the need to invade and dismember, perhaps to protect Russian speakers – as witnessed in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.
Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin recently announced a version of Serbia’s “little brother”, “Srpski Svet”, in which all Serbs have the right to unite and live together in one state. Belgrade claims the right to protect Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Croatia. In addition to political intervention on their behalf, this also means expanding military power to secure Serbian interests through military occupation. Like the Russians, the Serbs are portrayed as oppressed victims that foreign powers are plotting to assimilate or eliminate.
Vucic’s Serbia sees Russia as a respected brother and sister, its “big brother” as a strong and wise leader who can help the younger country realize its regional ambitions. But beneath this superficial brotherhood, the Kremlin is manipulating Belgrade to serve its geopolitical interests through an unequal relationship based on diplomatic, economic, military and political quadruple dependence.
Serbia has capitulated diplomatically to Russia, and Belgrade has pledged allegiance to Moscow. Among other acts of capitulation, the government has vowed never to impose economic sanctions on Russia, despite calls from the European Union for Serbia to align its foreign policy with that of the EU if it wishes. Unlike Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania, Serbia did not join the West in imposing an embargo on Russia following Ukraine’s annexation of Crimea or the arrest of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Belgrade clearly does not view Ukraine as a Slavic brother state and is happy to eliminate political dissidents.
Vucic bears endless blame for Putin for blocking Kosovo from joining the United Nations and refusing to recognize its independence. Parliament speaker Ivica Dacic described Russia as Serbia’s best ally, one that preserves its “territorial integrity” and defends it in international forums. In stark contrast to the current subservient government, communist Tito actually rebelled against Moscow and successfully resisted Stalin. Milosevic even maintained his independence from Russia and used Yeltsin to confront Western powers.
Serbia’s economic dependence on Russia continues to grow, especially in the energy sector. In January 2021, Belgrade ignored US calls to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and diversify its supplies. Instead, it launched a new gas interconnector through Bulgaria and Turkey, with a 400-kilometer section of the TurkishStream pipeline for Russian gas. Serbia’s almost total dependence on Russian energy supplies increases Russia’s control over the country.
Militarily, Serbia follows the Kremlin’s orders. Moscow is determined not to tolerate any move by Serbia to join NATO. Serbia is being reshaped as a Russian outpost and equipped with fighter jets, tanks and air defense systems. For Putin, Serbia offers a valuable opportunity to foment conflict and even provoke armed conflict in the Western Balkans to divert attention from Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus and to cover up the growing unrest in the Russian Federation. At some point, Vucic could be incited or provoked to move towards military confrontation under the pretext of protecting the “Serbian little world” and could even ask for help from the “Russian big world”.
The Vucic government’s dependence on Moscow’s political support is also escalating. The Kremlin’s support for various nationalist groups and its extensive influence in the Serbian information space are aimed at controlling Vucic. The purpose of the October 2016 coup in Montenegro was to overthrow the pro-NATO government in Podgorica and at the same time send a signal to Vucic that if he leaves Russia’s orbit, the Kremlin may replace him. By capitulating to Putin in every major area, Serbia has in fact become a willing victim of Moscow’s policies. / Dita newspaper
Clarification: All opinions in this column reflect solely the opinions of the author and not necessarily those of NGB “Zeri” LLC
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