Impossible dialogue between ECOWAS and AES?

It is an open secret that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AES) have been in open conflict for more than a year. Faced with various coups in the Sahel, it did not know what more responsible attitude to take to deal with different crises, and each time its reaction only exacerbated the situation. The first mediators from all over the world, especially Nigeria, could not change the situation, and the dialogue between the community organization and its member states, which sat on the bench, became difficult. The Nigerians still succeeded in weakening the enthusiasm of President Tinubu, who shocked the world by making himself a servant of the conquering France. Everyone hit a wall: the AES firmly decided to leave the organization and was no longer willing to enter into any negotiations with it. The situation became more complicated when people agreed to this position. But ECOWAS realized its mistake very late and tried to ease the tension, affirming that it would always be open to dialogue and, without any news from the Sahel, no doubt worried that she was not the victim of her own evil deeds. That is why, at the end of the last Congress, although it took note of the announcement made by the AES member states a year ago to withdraw from the organization, we still heard it, no doubt afraid, that it took another approach, always aimed at bringing the three countries back to its fold, and in particular the appointment of a mediator to dialogue with the three countries. This move may be commendable, but it comes only after certain initiatives by the AES countries that now lay the foundation for the construction of a new consultation framework to address some of the challenges they share, while synergizing their common efforts in economy, culture and people, in order to build a real framework that brings people together.

However, the day before the desperate summit in Abuja, the heads of state of the Alliance of Sahel States, meeting in Niamey, reiterated their withdrawal from the ECOWAS framework and no longer intended to return to it. But to everyone’s surprise, the summit of heads of state of ECOWAS, no doubt hoping to divide them at this point, decided to appoint mediators to negotiate the problematic (if not impossible) return of the countries. Two figures were designated to perform the impossible task.

The President of Togo…

This is perhaps a good card, since we know that the latter has good relations with the AES, especially with Niger, where, faced with the black claw extremism that closed Niger’s borders, he came to the rescue, opening the corridor to allow regular supplies to Niger, refusing to solidarize with the unjust, inhumane measures against the brotherly people of Niger. But he also knows the radical actions of his ECOWAS counterparts who urged the ECOWAS member states to take, and can even understand their position in order not to try to force them to return when the whole world heard their firm position that they must make these final sovereign decisions. . Therefore, the AES head of state may feel embarrassed by not receiving him when we know that he can maintain good relations with ECOWAS, while ECOWAS cruelly humiliates them for the sake of French cynicism. But the question remains: what can he extract from the AES to satisfy the upset ECOWAS?Patrice Talon knows that he is not the right person to carry out this mission at the level of the AES, especially when we learned, after the events in Niger last week, the serious accusations made by the transitional president of Burkina Faso against his country and Côte d’Ivoire, especially when he accused them of setting up foreign military bases, especially those of France, to destabilize his country and all the AES countries. As long as he does not provide evidence to refute this accusation, he knows that these leaders will not listen to him, because they have a lot to blame him for. Perhaps he wants to use ECOWAS to draw closer to the neighbouring countries, whose interests he only later understood, in favor of building good relations with them. It therefore risks becoming a grain of sand in the machine, with the potential to stall the engine of mediation and lead to the failure of the mission, because the quality of at least one mediator should lack the necessary framework of mutual trust. More than a week after the appointment of the mediator, there is no news of a possible meeting, the first round of which could give hope for the restart of the dialogue between the two components. Here also arises the question: why did Patrice Talon, knowing well the difficulties with the Sahel authorities, still want to come to negotiate with them? Didn’t he know that his presence in the team could make meetings with heads of state difficult or even impossible, since they ultimately accused him of being complicit with France in being driven out of the Sahel and therefore could not agree to speak to him? Perhaps he understood this a few days ago, since we can believe that the President of Togo has already initiated some contacts to listen to these reluctances precisely because he led a delegation to visit the three capitals. The engine purred; it didn’t seem to work.

Perhaps, behind the scenes, the foreign ministers have already tried to reach out, but without success. The position of the AES countries on this issue is known to everyone. For them, ECOWAS now belongs to history. What is important for them today is to move on, look forward and believe in the future. The AES knows this better than anyone else, because it knows that by betting on its single currency, when it is released, it could cause chaos at the ECOWAS level, and many ECOWAS member states and some countries with fragile currencies might decide to join it, to assert themselves with a new currency, break the ties with France and allow their economies to rise.

The only way out is definitely not to allow this belligerent ECOWAS to exist with the AES, because at least there is something to protect, which is part of people’s daily lives: their trade, their economy, which is now interdependent. The Sahel is a huge market, especially for these coastal countries. If they don’t have the Sahel, their market will disappear. Some people have begun to experience it because they understand that the Sahel is not just a desert, it is a life, it is a vibrant economy, it is an important economic partner.

Since then, the Sahel region, as well as other ECOWAS countries, have realized through these misunderstandings, through its vast lands, wealth and people, that it is a sub-regional power that plays a vital role in the geopolitical balance. . No one can impose anything on it anymore. Especially not the “living room slaves”.

Meliga