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However, Olafur said it was not at all certain that the Left Greens would reach the five percent target. “If that happened, it would be big news in Icelandic politics.”
He said that for decades, Icelandic politics has been characterized by a four-party system, which has been the mainstay of Icelandic politics. Among them, the Independence Party, the Progress Party and the People’s Party taken over by Sanfirkin have successively entered parliament since the 1930s.
The Communist Party of Iceland, the Socialist Party, the People’s Alliance and later the Left Green Party were the fourth party, which also entered parliament together from the 1930s.
“If one of these four quits parliament, it will be big news,” Olafur said.
He said it had only come close twice. In the 1974 Asingi election, the BJP did poorly in the election but still retained the seat with the MP returned from the constituency. In 2016, Samfylkingin secured a little over 5%. So, the parties managed to stay in the chamber, but barely.
Olawale said that in the historical context, it is easier for the opposition to gain support than the government.
Others have already accepted their cases
During the discussion about the Left Greens, it was said that the party had to sacrifice too many fundamental values in its governing partnership with the Independence Party. It was also mentioned that many of the fundamental values the party put forward have been adopted by other political parties today. Olaveur believes this is absolutely true and mentions radical feminism and environmental issues as examples.
“Both issues have gained wider recognition in society. The Green Left is not as professional on these issues as it once was,” Olaveur said, so it can be said that the party has put these issues on the agenda. It is difficult to say why these issues are on the agenda, but they are the first. But the same thing is happening in neighboring countries.
He said that in election research, Vinstri græn always came across environmental issues when asked about specific policy issues and which parties performed best on which issue.
“I think it’s clear that the main reason why support has dropped from around 17 percent in the 2017 election to around 5 percent now is because of their government’s collaboration with the Independence Party,” Olawale said.
He said the partnership would be a check on their loss of support after the 2017 election, as voters who support left-wing socialism at home and abroad tend to want to keep rivers clean.
“They don’t like to compromise,” Olafur said, citing Norway as an example where these parties never entered government. They supported majority governments under the Krata party but didn’t want to be part of it in order to maintain their uniqueness. After the turn of the century, these parties burst into government, and then some left-leaning parties emerged and took away their support.
Everyone loses
Olaveur said he continues to predict that the Left-Green Party will lose more support after continuing with the government in 2021. However, what happened during this election that did not happen in the previous election is that the Independence Party and the Progressive Party also lost support. The support of the Left-Green Party and the Progressive Party fell to Sanfirkin, and the support of the Independence Party fell to the Center Party.
Olawale predicted that the ruling party would lose the next election.
When asked about possible leaders of the party, Olafur said that if Svándís Svarvasdóttir were willing to take over, she would likely do better in the election. Current deputy chair and acting chair Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson was also under consideration, but neither has indicated whether they intend to run. Orri Páll Jóhannsson is also a staunch defender of the partnership.
“But I think if Swandis wanted to go, she probably would.”
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