If Anwar steps down, who will become prime minister?

Calculate who is most likely to become the XI Prime Minister, who is most acceptable and who is least hated by the people.

Tajuddin Rasdi, FMT

In this article, I want to play the role of devil’s advocate. The question here is simple, if Anwar Ibrahim is ousted, falls ill or retires, who will be the next Prime Minister?

Or should the question be who has the political capability to replace Anwar as Malaysia’s prime minister?

Why am I doing this now? It’s simple. A lot of people seem to think Anwar is not fit to be a leader. Forget Perikatan Nasional, they are not what I mean by “a lot of people”.

I am referring to the people of Peninsular Malaysia. I don’t know how the people of Sabah and Sarawak feel or whether they like Anwar or not, but this post is just a reaction to what I read in the media by writers from Peninsular Malaysia.

I have no intention of excluding the Malaysian states across the South China Sea, but please forgive my ignorance of the people and politics of Sabah and Sarawak.

Why people don’t like Anwar

Many Malays do not want Anwar because he is seen as a “servant” of the DAP, which is portrayed as the devil in the eyes of Islam and the devil in the eyes of the Malays.

The likes of Mahathir, Najib, Akmal Saleh and Hishammuddin Hussein ensured that the Malays never forgot this.

Malays within PAS have lately been taught that working with DAP, once their halal partner, is and always will be “halal” in both the religious and political sense.

Their argument deliberately ignores the following facts: the Prophet Muhammad asked a Christian king to help the hundreds of first immigrants; the Prophet was fully protected by his “kafir” uncle Abu Talib; and the Prophet signed an agreement with the Jews and Christians in Medina.

Oh, and what about the Muslim Malays in DAP? To the Malays, they are liberals, sesat (lost) and servants of the devil DAP. That’s why the Malays hate Anwar.

Non-Malay perspectives

Then there are the non-Malays. They hate Anwar because he broke his promises to reform and change many things.

He should open Universiti Teknologi Mara to everyone except the Bumiputera, increase quotas in public universities, and recognize the Unified Examination Certificate.

He should have kept a low profile on Islam instead of “converting” a Hindu boy and berating a Hindu girl in college.

If a tree falls in Kuala Lumpur and kills someone, it is Anwar’s fault.

As a result, many gave him an “F” and declared that they would not vote for Pakatan Harapan. Some said they would not even vote at all.

So, this is the democratic judgment of the people. Anwar must go. Now, how will Anwar go?

Many predict that in the next general election, Pakatan Harapan will be defeated. Alternatively, if UMNO quits because Anwar panders to non-Malay demands, the October election will still give Perikatan Nasional a majority, as many non-Malays will simply stay away and sulk.

Kuomintang candidate

In this case, the candidate to succeed Anwar will undoubtedly come from the PN leadership. Hadi Awang, Tuan Ibrahim, Muhyiddin and Hamzah Zainudin are all capable leadership candidates.

Hadi may be too ill, so I’m betting on Tuan Ibrahim. Hamzah may convince Sabahans and Sarawakians to choose a “moderate” Malay from Bersatu as PM, rather than a radical and extremist PAS leader.

Therefore, the answer from PN to the question of who will succeed Anwar is easy to guess.

Now, what is less easy to speculate is what would happen if Anwar were to fall ill, there would be no election, and the unity government would still be strong. That is the 20 sen conundrum. Who would be the prime minister?

Among the party leaders

In the first round of consideration, we look at the party leaders. We have Hajiji Noor, Abang Johari Oppon, Mohd Sabu, Loke Siew Fook and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

I don’t think Hajiji and Johari will agree to be PM. They have neither the numbers nor the experience in Malay politics in Peninsular Malaysia.

I don’t think the Malays will accept a Chinese DAP leader like Loke Siew Fook, even though he is the most capable among the other leaders. So, it’s a close call between Mohamed and Zahid.

With the support of Pakatan Harapan (PH), it is likely to be Mat Sabu.

But wait, what about Fadillah Yusof and Zahid as deputy prime minister? Of the two, it would definitely be Zahid because he has the most experience in Malay politics.

Now, some of you might be shouting, “What about Rafizi Ramli? Isn’t he the deputy president of PKR? Wouldn’t he be a good prime minister?”

To be honest, I like Rafizi but he won’t last two weeks in the PM’s office. The civil servants and UMNO people will probably drive him out.

Who is more hated?

So, the real contender comes back to Mohamad or Zahid. The people, Malay and non-Malay, may hate Anwar – but will they hate Mohamad?

I know that people on both sides of the racial divide hate Zahid.

That is my prediction and political calculation. If Anwar retires, steps down or becomes ill or incapacitated, then kudos to Mausab, PMXI.

Congratulations to the people. Anwar is out.