Honeymoon for Arce, Evo and everyone!

Usually, there are three periods to observe in the administration of a mayor, a governor, a president. The first is the honeymoon period when you are still completely legal. During this period, everything is fine. Everyone applauds. The second period is the period of illegalization or collapse: criticism begins. The happy times are over. Your mistakes begin to be noticed. The third period is decisive. It is the period of stability. This is what happens when you surpass the second dramatic stage of illegalization and you remain as a government authority until the end of your term: you have illegalized yourself, but you can continue to govern! That is, you go from the honeymoon period to the loss of legitimacy or potential degeneration, and if you overcome the second obstacle, you enter the moment of stability. This is the cycle of politicians in charge of government.

What do we think of Luis Arce? Let’s backtrack. In what era did Carlos Mesa live? He lived through the honeymoon period. After the farewell of Sánchez de Lozada, people pinned their hopes on his government. Everything was optimistic. The good times did not last long. It quickly went from the honeymoon period to illegalization and stayed there. He did not make the leap to stability like the Olympics. What do we see in Jenny? There was a sweetness in the attitude of the government with the honeymoon and Revilla and Samuel. They were naive. They confused the first glorious moment and believed it was unlimited. Wrong! Sooner or later, the second moment would come! Of course, it came. What was the result? Forced to resign at the height of illegalization. He never found stability.

What do we see with Evo? His legitimacy or honeymoon period was long but twofold: one part of the country adored him with equal passion, while the other part denied him. His downfall was imminent, caught in a conflict with the crucial and inevitable “half-moon”. In 2009 it won and entered the third phase, the stabilization phase! Previously, they wanted to take advantage of the downfall of Morales and launched a recall referendum in 2008. It was a clumsy move, but it must be admitted that Morales was mired in this second moment. This could have been the end of him, in that moment he was in an insurmountable misfortune. Evo overcame this difficulty and even inaugurated a fourth moment: the consolidation of the position that allowed him to be re-elected president in 2014. It was great: he went from an electoral honeymoon in 2005/6 (short but intense) to the delegitimization in the middle. The country went from 2006 to 2009, to stabilization in 2009 and consolidation in 2014.

Other examples: Goni in 2002. His honeymoon was shaky, his legitimacy was suddenly stripped away, until he boarded a plane and fled to the United States. Further? Yes, and it is necessary to point out: the solidity of the system, I mean the democratic system, allows us to go beyond the second fateful moment: Victor Paz went through three phases between 1985 and 1989 and completed his mission, as did Jaime Paz de from 1989 to 1993 and Sánchez de Lozada himself from 1993 to 1997. Banzer had already gone through a complicated period: his honeymoon was short, his legitimacy was permanently stripped away, his stability was weak and unstable. Only his own death paved the way for Tuto Quiroga’s immediate re-legalization. Just when his honeymoon turned to the brink of a second phase of illegalization, the young president ended his short term. This decisive moment only touched him, without “rising” to the stage of falling. Something similar happened with Eduardo Rodríguez Verzer: he took advantage of the fact that his honeymoon was about to end and called elections. Wisely.

Why did I make this count? To find out where Luis Arce was. The answer is beyond doubt: in the second moment of accelerating collapse. For the first two years and even longer, he felt immune. Big mistake. The sweetness of power is not eternal. They have suffered a clear attack and the only thing left to do is to overcome the crisis by moving towards stability. We have already said that Sears, Mesa or Jeanne did not do it. And Maple? Our first president pulled a trump card from his sleeve: he launched a dull referendum. What do you want to do? Stop the fall. He knew that he could not return to the idyllic sweetness of the first moment, and he was equally sure that he could not take the triumphant leap towards the third moment. What are you doing? Heave anchor at the moment of collapse and avoid collapse. Wow, it sounds interesting, but it is not. It is an oxygen valve that allows you to breathe in the face of an obvious collapse. Arce inflated himself and paralyzed the usual process towards collapse. The air was so thick that it was almost impossible to breathe, but it was still air. His situation was dramatic: either he would sink in this second moment or prolong it. Only a (gas) miracle can push it to a stable Stage 3. Will it last?