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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
UNITED STATES – Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, used last week’s Democratic National Convention to eliminate the advantages her Republican rival had in almost all key states in the election, including some where she has already gained a foothold, such as Georgia.
In the U.S. Electoral College system, the Nov. 5 election will be decided in seven states that are considered undecided, and Harris has erased nearly all of Trump’s advantage to date, especially before President Joe Biden filed for resignation following the no-decision election five weeks ago.
Harris, who became the Democratic nominee earlier this month and was crowned last week at the Chicago convention, has significantly increased Trump’s lead in Nevada and Arizona, increasing the Democratic lead by nearly 4 percentage points. The president has improved by three points in a month.
Harris’ progress isn’t enough to surpass Trump
However, these improvements are not enough to significantly surpass trump cardGeorgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada or Pennsylvania are still within the statistical margin of error, while Harris’ biggest advantages right now are Wisconsin and Michigan.
Harris has wiped out the entire Republican advantage in Arizona, where the Democrat leads by one point, and in Georgia and Nevada, the margins are two points. Trump leads by just one point in North Carolina, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday that was criticized by the Trump campaign.
That’s in stark contrast to the last poll in February, when Biden was the Democratic nominee and trailed Trump by 5 to 6 percentage points.
A tie in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, was the main obstacle to Harris’ victory, while Trump’s stunning defeat in Georgia also complicated the Republican’s chances.
Nate Silver, a political and sports analyst who created a model to predict the winner of the November election based on the quality of polls and other factors, believes Trump remains the favorite with 53.1% of the vote, while Harris has a 46.6% chance.
Silver assured Thursday that his model believes polls taken immediately after the Democratic and Republican conventions are inflated and should adjust their weightings.
Suffolk University Report
Yet a Suffolk University poll this week showed how the change in Democratic leadership has mobilized young people, low-income families and Latinos and African Americans to lead the vice presidential race by double digits in voting intentions against Trump.
David Palaiologos, director of the Center for Political Studies at Suffolk University in Boston, stressed in a statement that “young people, people of color, and low-income families have shifted dramatically toward the vice president.”
A Wall Street Journal poll released Friday showed 48% of voters had a generally positive view of the Democratic candidate, compared with 47% for the former Republican president, a very small gap within the margin of error.
The FiveThirtyEight portal’s national poll average shows Harris leading by 3.4 percentage points, with a voter intention rate of 47.2%, while the RealClearPolitics average shows her leading in the polls by 1.8 percentage points, with a maximum of 48%.
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