Geopolitics could hinder Pacific islands’ ‘development and security’, think tank says

Flags of various countries are hung on the mast.
photo: 123 RF

New research released by a prominent Australian think tank has found that Pacific island nations are working to take advantage of opportunities offered by the region as geopolitical competition makes the region more “intense”.

Lowy Institute data snapshot, The Great Game on the Pacific IslandsThe report, released on Thursday, found that “island states are exploiting great power competition and striking tough deals to maximize their development benefits.”

However, the report shows that “unfettered strategic competition” also poses a threat to good governance and transparency.

“This could further weaken Pacific island countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change, corruption, political instability, post-pandemic debt distress and rapid population growth,” the institute said.

“The Pacific is an increasingly crowded geopolitical landscape, with multiple major powers vying for influence,” said Lowy Institute academics Mihaly Sola, Dr Jessica Collins and Dr Meg Keen.

“China is expanding its influence through diplomatic relations, infrastructure projects and development financing, while traditional partners such as Australia and the United States struggle to maintain their influence,” they wrote.

“But competition distracts from the most pressing needs of the Pacific, and there is much work to be done to help improve the overall development and security trajectory of Pacific nations.”

The report’s key findings are:

• The geopolitical landscape in the Pacific is increasingly competitive and changing. The dominance of Australia, the United States, and New Zealand as political and development partners is being directly challenged by China. All of these countries recognize the geographic, diplomatic, and natural resource attributes of the region and want to maximize their own benefits while thwarting the ambitions of their competitors.
• The Pacific region will face more geopolitical shocks that could disrupt its political, economic and security landscape and put pressure on regional cohesion. Climate change risks are also increasing, affecting territorial integrity, economic stability and human security. Economic difficulties and political instability will continue to cause intermittent disruptions.
• Pacific island countries are more vocal in their demands in international affairs, demanding better deals on trade, labor mobility, digital connectivity and climate resilience. They are pushing traditional partners such as Australia and the United States to move beyond donor-recipient relationships and build more balanced partnerships to reduce aid dependence and promote economic development.

Top 10 development partners in the Pacific since 2008.
photo: Screenshot/The Great Game on the Pacific Islands

Hervé Lemahieu, director of research at the Lowy Institute, said the data snapshot builds on findings from several of the institute’s flagship research projects.

“The authors combine the institute’s original data with in-depth research on the region to provide a comprehensive assessment of the strategic factors shaping this hotly contested region,” he said.