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go through Geoffrey Miller* of Democratic Project
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks to reporters after the Reserve Bank announced a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate on August 14, 2024.
photo: RNZ/Samuel Rillstone
Viewpoint – Not only does New Zealand agree, it is now in lockstep with Australia.
That was the theme of New Zealand’s prime minister’s keynote speech on foreign policy at a Sydney think tank on Thursday.
Christopher Luxon’s 20-minute speech had a distinctly hawkish tone.
The Lowy Institute speech reiterated a recent position by UK Foreign Secretary Winston Peters, as well as a similar speech by Luxembourg in Tokyo in June.
Indeed, Luxon heaped praise on Peters, saying he was “the most active and influential New Zealand foreign minister of this generation” and was “reshaping our foreign policy”.
Importantly, Luxon reiterated Peters’ claim that Wellington was undertaking a “foreign policy reset”. This was a further sign of the Prime Minister’s support for Peters as New Zealand, in Luxon’s words, was “returning to the great tradition of New Zealanders being active on the world stage”.
But Luxon’s Attending Sydney events It’s not just a rubber stamp thing.
The Prime Minister identified three areas of cooperation in New Zealand’s bilateral relationship with Australia, but gave particular priority to the defence relationship.
On the AUKUS agreement, the Prime Minister said “we welcome AUKUS as an initiative to enhance regional security and stability”, adding that Wellington was “exploring with AUKUS partners how to participate in the Pillar Two agreement”.
Luxon’s second area focuses on the Pacific, where New Zealand and Australia will be “committed partners in supporting Pacific Islands Forum member countries”.
The third and final area focuses on the economy and expanding bilateral economic integration between the already closely linked Australia and New Zealand.
The prime minister described the efforts as “an effort to scrape barnacles off the bottom of a ship so it can go faster”.
Australia is New Zealand’s third largest export market (after China and the United States) and second largest two-way trading partner, with two-way trade between the two countries reaching NZ$31 billion as of March 2024.
Throughout his speech and a subsequent question-and-answer session with Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove, Luxon sought to connect economics and trade to his security-focused goals.
Luxembourg said in his speech that “without security, you cannot have prosperity”, while during the question and answer session, the prime minister said the war in Ukraine showed that “economic interests cannot simply be separated from security interests”.
The purpose of this connection is twofold: First, it justifies Luxembourg’s relatively busy international travel schedule to voters, who may question why a prime minister who campaigned on domestic economic priorities is traveling abroad so often.
Second, and more importantly, linking economics to security provides an explanation and basis for some rather hawkish foreign policy shifts.
During the question-and-answer session, Luxon made it clear that he believed the era of New Zealand’s “independent foreign policy” was over.
An independent foreign policy is a largely bipartisan one that Wellington has developed since it suspended its defence obligations to New Zealand under the Australia-New Zealand Treaty in 1986. Previously, New Zealand’s then fourth Labour government controversially introduced a no-nuclear policy.
With the end of the Cold War just around the corner, Wellington was able to free itself from the bloc and successfully develop strong, trade-focused relationships with China and other southern hemisphere countries – while gradually repairing relations with the United States.
But in Sydney, Luxon gently ridiculed the idea of an independent foreign policy, calling it “nonsense”. The prime minister sought to redefine the concept in a narrower sense: “There are 195 countries in the world with a population of 8 billion, and all 195 countries have independent foreign policies.”
This deliberately narrow and somewhat dubious interpretation of the bedrock independent foreign policy theory stems from Peters’ December 2023 speech to foreign diplomats based in New Zealand – again emphasising that the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister are united.
But that wasn’t the only interesting bit from the Q&A session.
Regarding Ukraine, Luxon said: “This is a war that Ukraine must win, and we must support them and help them do that, it is absolutely necessary.”
Luxon believes that Wellington’s support for Kiev and New Zealand’s participation in the US- and UK-led air strike coalition against Houthi rebels in Yemen are examples of the country practicing what it preaches: “You can believe in your values, but you also have to live up to it with your actions.”
New Zealand’s prime minister went even further, linking Ukraine directly to Asia: “Ukraine could also become a flashpoint in our Indo-Pacific region.”
When it came to the second pillar of AUKUS, Luxon reiterated the familiar line of “open exploration” – a phrase that has been used by New Zealand leaders for at least a year, including Luxon’s predecessor, Labour’s Chris Hipkins.
But the Prime Minister also linked the decision-making process to the upcoming launch of New Zealand’s new “Defence Capability Plan”, which appears to have been pushed back to late 2024 or even early 2025.
The blueprint was originally promised for release in June, but was later changed to September. In his speech, Luxon only mentioned the “coming months.”
The delay may seem surprising against the backdrop of Luxembourg’s pledge to inject “more vigour, more urgency and more focus” into New Zealand’s foreign policy.
But it makes more sense given the US election date of November 5. With Donald Trump likely to return to the White House, Wellington may be hedging its bets on AUKUS.
However, Luxon was very clear about his ambitions on defence issues, saying “we want to be a force multiplier for Australia”.
These words were like heavenly music to Canberra.
But they could put New Zealand on a collision course with China.
* Geoffrey Miller is a geopolitical analyst at the Democracy Project, writing about New Zealand’s current foreign policy and relevant geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East, and studied Arabic and Russian. He is currently studying for a PhD at the University of Otago, researching New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf States.
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