From Gaza to Beijing: What foreign policy will Kamala Harris propose?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, July 24, his first trip abroad since the Hamas attack on October 7. Noticeably absent from the speech: a speech by U.S. Vice President and Senate President Kamala Harris, who did not take her usual seat at the podium.

Under protocol, she was responsible for presiding over the session. But taking the stage with House Speaker Mike Johnson was staunchly pro-Israel Senator Benjamin Cardin of Maryland, in what was Netanyahu’s fourth address to the country’s parliament.

Despite the importance of the event, the vice president was in Indianapolis to attend the national convention of the Zeta Phi Beta fraternity, one of the oldest African-American student organizations in the U.S. Harris’ absence raised many questions despite her imminent inauguration as the Democratic presidential candidate.

In an effort to minimize the impact of Harris’ decision, her team said the campaign trip was planned long before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and assured that the vice president would meet with the Israeli prime minister alone.

One of her advisers told the media that “her July 24 trip to Indianapolis should not be interpreted as a change in her position on Israel,” and emphasized Harris’ “unwavering commitment” to Israel’s security.

Now that President Joe Biden, a key ally of Israel, has dropped out of the White House race, Harris’s stance on the Gaza war — an issue that deeply divides American voters — has come into focus.

New to diplomacy

Foreign policy is not exactly a strong suit for the woman aspiring to be the first female president of the United States. It is a particularly sensitive issue for allies who are closely watching America’s security commitments, especially after Donald Trump chose openly isolationist Senator Cyrus Vance as his vice presidential candidate.

Harris, a law school graduate and former California attorney general and senator, has devoted her career to solving domestic policy problems. His appointment as vice president in 2021 does not conform to the American political tradition of expecting the vice president to make up for the newly elected president’s lack of experience in foreign policy.

When Biden was elected president in 2020, Harris became the vice president of a politician who had served in the U.S. Senate for 36 years and in the White House for eight years.

Steven Ekovich, an expert on American politics and professor at the American University of Paris, analyzed that after nearly four years in office, Harris is now “well-informed” about foreign policy issues because “the vice president attends meetings and briefings at the U.S. National Security Council.”

Ekovich said that if Harris is eventually appointed as the Democratic nominee, she will most likely maintain the same course on foreign policy as her predecessor. “At least in the short term, it will probably keep the same management and the same team. I don’t think it will change things immediately,” he analyzed. “I think he will run a continuity campaign.”

But the stakes remain, experts noted: “We are in ‘uncharted territory’ because we don’t know much about his foreign policy orientation.”

‘More sympathy’ for Palestinians

If Biden has been a staunch supporter of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip since the Oct. 7 attack and has maintained U.S. military aid despite strained relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his vice president has taken a more nuanced stance.

Harris has supported a two-state solution and Israel’s right to self-defense since her election to the U.S. Senate in 2017, and has been careful not to contradict the president’s position on the issue since her appointment as vice president. However, he has strongly condemned the number of Palestinian victims and the actions of the State of Israel on several occasions.

In early March, he made the strongest comments yet by a U.S. government official on the Gaza war, calling for a ceasefire to end the “immense suffering” of Gazans and criticizing Israel for its shortcomings in providing humanitarian aid.

“The people of Gaza are starving. The conditions are inhumane, and our shared humanity compels us to act,” Harris declared at the time. “The Israeli government must do more to significantly increase humanitarian aid. There can be no excuses,” he urged.

A month later, the US Vice President again called on Israel to “do more to protect humanitarian workers” after seven staff members of the US NGO World Central Kitchen were killed, including an American citizen, in an Israeli army raid on its humanitarian convoy.

Jim Zogby, founder of the Arab American Institute, a political research organization for the Arab American community in the United States, told The Wall Street Journal that he had a phone conversation with Harris in October and that Harris showed “more sympathy for the Palestinians than Biden and other White House advisers.”

As a result, future Democratic nominees might take a slightly more nuanced stance than the one Biden has taken so far, continuing to support Israel but providing more space for the Palestinian issue.

A key question in a key state

Despite the campaign’s defining events — the assassination attempt against Trump and Biden’s withdrawal — the Gaza war remains a key issue in the presidential election.

Polls in recent months have shown growing support for Palestine among young Americans, while Democrats are deeply divided on the issue. Dozens of lawmakers from the party’s left wing have sought to boycott Netanyahu’s speech to Congress. That was the case with “The Squad,” an informal group of young progressive lawmakers made up of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, who are a strong supporter of Harris’ presidential campaign.

The Biden administration’s policies toward Israel have angered some Democratic voters and jeopardized the left’s prospects, especially in some battleground states.

Ekovich said Harris’ absence from Netanyahu’s speech sent an “election message to some key states like Michigan, where Detroit is, and Pennsylvania, where Philadelphia is, which is located. It’s in a place with a large black population, and people have an allergy to Biden’s very pro-Israel stance.”

But for the political scientist, while Harris’ absence from Netanyahu’s speech to Congress could be interpreted as symbolism, the Democratic establishment clearly supports the party’s future candidate and is unlikely to fundamentally change US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

On Ukraine and NATO continuity

Ekovic analyzed that Harris should also continue to pursue a policy of continuity on other important issues, such as the war in Ukraine and the US commitment to NATO.

The US vice president has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several times at international summits, notably at this year’s Munich Security Conference, where she represented Biden for the third consecutive year.

At the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland in June, Harris pledged a massive $1.5 billion in aid for Ukraine’s energy sector, in addition to $379 million in humanitarian aid.

“Frankly, she’s been tested,” Democrat Adam Smith told the news site Politico. For him, these occasions are a chance to show off his “impressive knowledge” and “skills” in Europe about American politics and NATO.

Stance on China remains uncertain

However, its position on China, another major issue in US foreign policy, has yet to be determined.

Harris has taken a relatively tough stance on Beijing, supporting the Biden administration’s general line of defending U.S. interests in the South China Sea and publicly criticizing human rights violations in Xinjiang.

But she has so far been less engaged on the issue than other members of the administration and has yet to fully elaborate on her views and strategy.

So while Harris’ foreign policy is likely to be largely a continuation of Biden’s, particularly in areas such as Ukraine and NATO, there are several areas, particularly on Israel and China, that could lead to a slightly different and nuanced approach.

Latin America: The thorny issue of immigration

Another key issue in the campaign that Harris must convince on: irregular immigration from Latin America, an issue Trump has often raised and one she is responsible for.

On this issue, the future Democratic candidate is at a disadvantage from the start. By entrusting Harris with the issue of irregular immigration, Biden has chosen to entrust her with a particularly thorny issue. Harris has been criticized since taking office in the face of an unprecedented wave of immigration.

The vice president has strictly adhered to White House guidelines and made some mistakes during visits to the Mexican border and Latin American countries. “Don’t come,” he repeated during a visit to Guatemala in 2021 to send a message to migrants from Central and South American countries trying to cross the border illegally. Harris was subsequently accused of laxity by Republican lawmakers and insensitive by several Democratic lawmakers, who harshly criticized her remarks.

Experts agree that the task is almost impossible: “He inherited the immigration problem, and of course, he didn’t solve it because no one could,” analyzed political scientist Ekovich. Despite the difficulties on this issue, Harris supported the bipartisan agreement reached in February in the Senate and the White House to strengthen the fight against immigration at the Mexican border. The initiative was rejected by Republicans in the House of Representatives.

Her handling of the issue will serve as a point of attack for Trump, who has made “illegal immigration” a central axis of his campaign. However, for Ekovich, this strategy by the Republican candidate could backfire. “If Republicans, Trump and Vance attack her on this point, Harris will be able to respond that a bill was introduced and Republicans blocked it.”