France votes heavily in key legislative election, far right in strong position

ParisThe French will vote en masse this Sunday in a second round of legislative elections that will be crucial to their future and in which the far right could for the first time become the leading party or even enter government.

The participation rate stood at 59.71 percent at 5:00 p.m. (3:00 p.m. GMT), the highest recorded for legislative elections since the left came to power in 1981, according to data released by the Interior Ministry.

Pollsters estimate that participation could be around 67% when polls close on Sunday, a slight increase from the first round.

Nearly 50 million voters are facing a dilemma: vote for the far-right National Bloc (RN) or for the “Republican Front” formed by the ruling party and the left?

“We are at a turning point in the country’s history,” 72-year-old pensioner Antoine Schrameck told AFP as he voted in the Strasbourg suburb of Rosheim.

Following the victory of the far-right Marine Le Pen party in the European elections on June 9, center-right President Emmanuel Macron shocked France by calling elections earlier than originally scheduled for 2027.

Although its aim was to bring about a political “clarification” in France and thus curb the far right, the first round results put the National Party in the lead with a third of the votes, and even predicted an eventual absolute majority.

But after the first round of voting, the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and President Emmanuel Macron’s centre-right coalition wove more than 200 hidden local agreements, the so-called “Republican Front”, to oust the candidates with the fewest votes and prevent Le Pen and her allies from a landslide victory.

The latest forecasts from two pollsters show the far-right bloc will lose its majority of 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly (lower house) to between 170 and 210 seats, followed by the NFP (155 to 185) and the official coalition (95 to 125).

Artists, football players and associations, among others, have also called for the RN to be prevented from winning, a campaign similar to that in 2002, when Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, lost his first presidential bid.

“We need to go to the vote more than ever. It’s so urgent. We can’t let this country fall into the hands of these people,” France soccer captain Kylian Mbappe said on Thursday, calling for the vote to be “on the side of good”.

Pope Francis warned against “the temptation of ideology and populism” during a visit to the Italian city of Trieste on Sunday, but did not mention any country specifically.

Application Scenario

The first estimate will be published at 8:00 pm (6:00 pm GMT), when polling stations are due to close, following a campaign that has been rife with insults and attacks on candidates and supporters, as well as racist and anti-Semitic remarks.

An hour and a half before closing, Macron will receive Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and the outgoing leaders of the majority parties at the Elysee Palace, according to a source close to the government, noting that “no speeches are planned at the moment”.

Authorities will deploy 30,000 police and gendarmes on Sunday night in the event of possible “riots” with less than three weeks until the Paris Olympics.

Analysts warned the outcome was uncertain and would depend on abstentions. Participation in the first round was nearly 20 points higher than in 2022.

If no group achieves an absolute majority, several hypotheses emerge: a difficult coalition between sections of the left, the ruling party and right-wing representatives who disagree with the National Party, or even a technocratic government with parliamentary support.

Center-right Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced that his government was willing to stay in power “as long as necessary” to guarantee the country’s continuity.

Whatever the outcome, France is passing through a critical moment in its political history. It could hasten the end of “Macronism,” a cycle that began with Macron’s rise to the center of the political spectrum in 2017. His term ends in 2027.

The Republicans’ absolute majority will choose Jordan Bardella, a young star at 28, to be prime minister of France’s first far-right government since the liberation of Nazi Germany during World War II.

His victory in the EU’s second-largest economy and in nuclear power could weaken France’s influence in Brussels, which has been one of the main drivers of European integration, and undermine its support for Ukraine.

It will also add a new government in Europe made up of figures from the far right: in Italy, post-fascist Giorgia Meroni is prime minister, while in other countries such as Finland, Slovakia and the Netherlands they are part of the executive.