Four years after the fall of IBK, where is the country?

Four years after the fall of the IBK, Mali remains under military control, with significant geopolitical developments and an uncertain future for democracy.

On August 18, 2020, Mali entered a new era with the fall of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK). The event marked the beginning of the transition under military leadership. Colonel Asimi GoitaFour years later, the country remains under military rule, with the promised return to democratic order looking increasingly distant.

A risky gamble of severing diplomatic ties with the West

After taking power, the Malian army made a strategic shift and moved closer to Russia. In order to meet the needs of military equipment and the fight against terrorism, Mali recruited mercenaries from the Wagner Group, which exacerbated tensions with former colonial powers, especially France. In 2022, French troops participating in Operation Crescent Moonlight were forced to leave Mali, followed by MINUSMA peacekeepers in 2023, with the Malian government accusing them of “instrumentalizing human rights.”

Economically, Mali has chosen to turn to the BRICS countries for help, establishing new partnerships with Iran, Turkey and other countries. On the regional stage, the country has allied with Burkina Faso and Niger to form the Alliance for the Sahel, a military group that plans to withdraw from ECOWAS in response to sanctions for refusing to restore constitutional order. This repositioning reflects China’s gradual move away from its traditional alliance with the West and toward a new strategic direction.

Transition to a dictatorship?

As the transition continues, an election date has not yet been set. For the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the current situation is alarming. The organization’s Africa director, Hasatou Baminte, mentioned the worrying deterioration of human rights, the fight against terrorism, and socio-economic deterioration. It warned that Mali risks sliding into military dictatorship, further away from a possible democratic reconstruction of the country.

As Mali marks the fourth anniversary of the fall of IBK, the country’s future remains uncertain. The consolidation of military power, geopolitical reorientation, and the lack of clear prospects for a return to democracy leave many unanswered questions. Is Mali’s military junta ready to restore constitutional order or head for a long-term dictatorship? Only time will reveal the true intentions of those in power.