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While EU foreign policy may not be the main topic of concern for Europeans when they vote this Sunday, that could change over the next five years.
During this parliament, the influence of the far-right parties – European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democrats (ID) – on the European Parliament’s foreign policy stance remained fairly moderate.
Overall, mainstream parties have done a good job of “staying at the center” on the most critical issues, such as Ukraine support.
Because, let’s face it, foreign policy is not generally our strong point, and it is certainly not a uniting factor for most far-right parties.
While EU foreign policymakers closely monitor the bloc’s response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, they take comfort in the fact that they are mostly deeply divided on the issue.
These positions are primarily related to geography rather than group affiliation, with far-right parties in the East deeply distrustful of Russia and those in the West closely aligned with Kremlin propaganda.
Russiagate is an interesting symptom of this divide.
According to current opinion polls, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the left-wing Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to be in first and second place again, with a slight loss of seats.
But both ECR and ID can expect to gain substantial benefits, and even Far-right supergroup It is no longer unthinkable.
Far-right parties could win in nine countries, including Austria, the Netherlands, France, Hungary, Poland and Italy.
In nine other countries, including Spain and Germany, they are expected to come in second or third.
Ultimately, the two far-right groups could account for around 25% of MEPs in the new parliament.
A sharp rightward shift in parliament’s stance could result in a clear majority of MEPs supporting stricter immigration policies and their attempts to use development aid to reduce migration flows.
The EU will certainly become more polarized on its decisions on key foreign policy issues, such as Ukraine’s military support for Russia and the EU’s stance on Israel’s war with Hamas.
However, let’s forget for a moment about the European Parliament, which does not have much influence on the EU’s foreign policy guidelines.
This surge in far-right representation in the European Parliament will not occur in isolation, but could be a harbinger of changes that will take place at the national level across Europe over the next five years.
The participation of far-right parties in more and more national governments will have a more significant impact on the influence of member states on EU foreign policy, especially in the European Council, because EU foreign policy decisions are adopted unanimously by the Council.
The worry is that if some EU member states regularly exercise their veto power, other countries will become increasingly inclined to do so.
Look at Hungary. Responsible for the largest number of The EU’s foreign policymaking has been thwarted, and this has only happened in the past two years.
Slovakia, under Prime Minister Robert Fico, has experienced a somewhat similar trajectory. The Netherlands may Newest countries Once a government is successfully formed, these teams will
Italy is a notable exception, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meroni being pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO, and pro-EU, as is Poland, under its Law and Justice government, at least in terms of foreign policy decisions involving Russia and security.
But several parties, including the Austrian Freedom Party, Hungarian Fidesz, Bulgarian Renaissance, Slovak National Party and German Alternative for Germany, have a favorable view of Russia and favor a sovereigntist turn over an EU consensus.
The return of former US President Donald Trump to the White House could lead to new divisions at the EU and national levels, especially as some member states may be willing to align themselves with Washington at all costs.
Add to that anti-NATO and anti-American sentiment on the far right, which is often linked to broader anti-globalist or sovereigntist ideologies.
The only country that has not yet joined is China, as it has so far refrained from developing deeper ties to the European far right.
Then there is the EU enlargement, which has the potential to become The most important component The next round of EU foreign policy.
While far-right parties remain skeptical of enlargement, some of them support specific EU candidate countries for their own reasons.
Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) believes that Ukraine’s accession to the EU is a matter of national security; Romania’s Alliance for National Unity (AUR) believes that Moldova is part of Romania’s territory; Hungary’s Fidesz hopes that like-minded Western Balkan countries can enhance Hungary’s status within the EU.
Responding to the overall trend will be one of the major challenges facing the EU’s next institutional cycle.
Wider Europe
Next semester | During the next European Commission term, the Enlargement and Neighbourhood Issues document is expected to be Most precious possession When distributing top EU posts among member states.
Join the negotiations | The European Commission this week clear Ukraine and Moldova are both fully prepared to formally start EU accession negotiations. Can EU member states meet on June 25 to formally start the process? Maybe.
Before that, EU member states need to agree on a framework for negotiations between the two countries. Hungary keeps stalling Ukraine has long had concerns about the treatment of Kiev’s Hungarian minority, among other issues.
More than a dozen EU member states have joined forces to promote the accession process for candidate countries Ukraine and Moldova and to formally launch accession talks by the end of June, according to a letter. First reported by Euractiv.
EU ambassadors are expected to revisit the issue next Wednesday (June 12).
The EU in the world
Getting ready for G7 | Eurozone finance ministers this week Give political support The G7 plans to use the windfall profits from Russian assets to provide loans to Ukraine, and they are preparing to discuss the plan after the G7 leaders’ summit in late June.
When it comes to next week’s G7 summit, host Italy has drawn up an unusually long guest list, reflecting Rome’s desire to broaden the horizons of the summit format.
Diplomats have issued A list Leaders expected to attend include those from India, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Algeria, Kenya and Mauritania, with Saudi Arabia and Jordan also confirmed this week to attend.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also expected to attend the meeting and lobby for a Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland later that week.
Israel Talks | The EU invited Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz to attend an “interim” EU-Israel joint council to discuss the country’s compliance with its human rights obligations under the agreement. Not sure yet Whether Tel Aviv will respond to the subpoena.
Overextended | Talking about the EU’s position on the Gaza war, Europe’s response has been uneven and confusing The EU’s credibility in the region has been undermined, European Council President Charles Michel said this week, echoing the sentiments of a growing number of policymakers over the past few months. Read the full interview here.
Defense Briefing
Key File | Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s weapons and defence stockpiles are running low, and EU industry is reluctant to invest in additional production capacity. Must be resolved.
Military Instructor | Ukrainian President Zelensky Two-day visit to FranceFrench President Emmanuel Macron said his goal was to form a coalition In the coming days Send military instructors to the war-torn country.
What else do we read?
Next week we will focus on
- European elections
| Thursday to Sunday, June 6-9, 2024 | Europe - BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
| Monday-Tuesday, June 10-11, 2024 | Nizhny Novgorod - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel, Egypt
| Monday to Wednesday, June 10-12, 2024 | Tel Aviv, Israel / Cairo, Egypt / Amman, Jordan - NATO Bucharest Nine (B9) Eastern Flank Leaders Meeting
| Tuesday, June 12, 2024 | Riga, Latvia - Gaza Emergency Aid Summit jointly held with Egypt
| Tuesday, June 12, 2024 | Jordan Swime - Zelensky attends international conference on Ukraine reconstruction
| Tuesday-Wednesday, June 11-12, 2024 | Berlin, Germany - G7 Leaders’ Summit
| Thursday to Saturday, June 13-15, 2024 | Puglia, Italy - NATO defense ministers hold meeting
| Thursday to Friday, June 13-14, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - Ukraine Peace Summit
| Saturday-Sunday, June 15-16, 2024 | Bürgenstock, Switzerland - EU High-level Informal Dinner
| Monday, June 17, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
Previous Versions
(Editing by Alice Taylor)
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