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Friday, August 30, 2024
By Simon Marks
A sculpture in Hargeisa, Somaliland. Photographer: Eduardo Soteras/Getty Images
The Horn of Africa countries, with the support of regional proxies, have once again started making threats.
The risk of renewed conflict in the region has increased since Ethiopia reached a deal on January 1 to ensure direct access to the Indian Ocean through Somaliland. The semi-autonomous region said Addis Ababa was willing to become the first government in Africa to recognize its sovereignty claims.
Egypt and Eritrea immediately sided with Somalia.
Cairo has signed a security agreement with Somalia and this week sent two planes loaded with weapons and ammunition to Mogadishu, the first Egyptian shipment of military equipment to the East African country in decades.
Ethiopia responded with a warning: “Those forces that seek to incite tensions for short-term and futile goals must bear serious consequences.”
The incident lifted the veil on an ongoing conflict over Ethiopia’s construction of a large dam on a tributary of the Nile, which could disrupt water flows to Egypt and Sudan.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has not been afraid to stir up trouble by demanding rights of way to Ethiopia’s coast – access it lost three decades ago when Eritrea gained independence after a civil war.
Western officials worry that all the tensions and posturing will come to a head in the coming months.
The disruption to the US election could be seen as an opportunity for the US to act without a response from Washington. In addition, the battle between African Union forces and the Somali Islamist militant group al-Shabaab will also end.
Somalia has demanded that Ethiopian troops be excluded from a new peacekeeping mission and threatened to block its neighbor’s airlines from flying to its territory over the Somaliland dispute.
Sudan is already mired in conflict and the region can ill afford an escalation in the war of words in the Horn of Africa.
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